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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/22

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, April 22nd

*Lines are opening numbers

Miami Heat (-3, 220) at Atlanta Hawks

Game 3: Heat lead 2-0

Atlanta has a lot of questions to answer if it is going to find its way back into this series. The absence of Clint Capela is being felt by the Hawks and in two game they’ve started two different players at the five with little success. Trae Young has no lob threat and through two games they are 21-of-32 (65.6%) within four feet of the basket while averaging only 36.0 points in the paint per game. Young himself needs to be better, specifically from distance where he is shooting 2-of-17 in the series. The onus is on their offense to improve because their defense is not going to be much better given its limitations. Through two games Miami is averaging 120.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and 109.6 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt. Considering Atlanta finished the regular season 26th in overall defensive efficiency this was to be expected to a certain extent. The betting market is buying in on the Hawks coming back home down two games and this number is down to Heat -1 at almost every shop. We have also seen this total jump up to 221.5 which correlates with the supported side. If the Hawks are covering or winning this game the score is going to have to be higher than what we’ve seen in the first two games, because it is likely they are not containing Miami’s offense.

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