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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/15


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, April 15th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 225.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

The status of Jarrett Allen is the story of this game. Allen, who missed the final 18 games of the regular season, was upgraded to questionable for this game and is “50-50” to play tonight, according ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. If Allen can make his return tonight this entire game flips. With Allen back on the floor Evan Mobley can shift back to power forward and suddenly the Cavaliers are more like the team that was competing for a top three seed in the Eastern Conference. With Allen at center and Mobley at power forward Cleveland allows just 105.5 points per 100 possessions and 54.4% within four feet of the basket. Mobley back at his natural position of power forward can now flash out to the perimeter and contest 3-point shots and play the style of basketball that got him to the top of the oddsboard for Rookie of the Year. That would make the Cavaliers a significantly different team, but here they are getting power rated as a lowly team that could be upwards of 5.5 points worse than the Hawks. If Allen does not play then Atlanta does have a significant edge here. Without Allen on the floor Cleveland’s defense has suffered significantly. With Mobley at center they allow 113.0 points per 100 possessions and since losing him their overall defensive rating of 118.7 which is 23rd in the league. Personally, this number came out Cavaliers -1 before the news of Allen’s potential return, so it would be Cleveland or pass the whole way here for me. The betting market has been all over Atlanta this season, making them a very overvalued favorite and this does seem like another game in which that is taking place.

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