NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/15

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, April 15th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Atlanta Hawks (-1.5, 225.5) at Cleveland Cavaliers

The status of Jarrett Allen is the story of this game. Allen, who missed the final 18 games of the regular season, was upgraded to questionable for this game and is “50-50” to play tonight, according ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski. If Allen can make his return tonight this entire game flips. With Allen back on the floor Evan Mobley can shift back to power forward and suddenly the Cavaliers are more like the team that was competing for a top three seed in the Eastern Conference. With Allen at center and Mobley at power forward Cleveland allows just 105.5 points per 100 possessions and 54.4% within four feet of the basket. Mobley back at his natural position of power forward can now flash out to the perimeter and contest 3-point shots and play the style of basketball that got him to the top of the oddsboard for Rookie of the Year. That would make the Cavaliers a significantly different team, but here they are getting power rated as a lowly team that could be upwards of 5.5 points worse than the Hawks. If Allen does not play then Atlanta does have a significant edge here. Without Allen on the floor Cleveland’s defense has suffered significantly. With Mobley at center they allow 113.0 points per 100 possessions and since losing him their overall defensive rating of 118.7 which is 23rd in the league. Personally, this number came out Cavaliers -1 before the news of Allen’s potential return, so it would be Cleveland or pass the whole way here for me. The betting market has been all over Atlanta this season, making them a very overvalued favorite and this does seem like another game in which that is taking place.

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Clippers (-4, 217)

These two teams met just 12 days ago and Los Angeles cruised to a 119-100 victory at home to solidify its hold on the eighth seed in the Western Conference. The Clippers closed -2 in that game, so it would make sense to bump the line a couple points given the result and the homecourt in an elimination game setting. It was also one of the few games that New Orleans has lost with its revamped starting five on the floor. After the win and cover over the Spurs on Wednesday the Pelicans are now 8-2 SU/7-3 ATS in the 10 games that CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Herb Jones, Jaxson Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas play. Even in the loss to the Clippers this group was still able to dominate the offensive glass, grabbing 38.5% of its missed shots and 47.2% in halfcourt settings. However, that was the overall problem for New Orleans. Los Angeles was incredible on defense forcing those missed shots and holding the Pelicans to 1.045 points per possession in non-garbage time. Second chance opportunities will be there for New Orleans tonight, but they must also convert some first chance opportunities if they are to cover, or potentially win, this game. The number is higher than what I believe it should be, but not by much as I made it 3.5 by my ratings. The play here would be under the total if this number gets back to the 217 number by gametime. These are elimination games now and that means we could see a Game 7 typee environment which means a low-scoring, halfcourt oriented affair.

Best Bet Summary

None

Season Record: 83-64-2

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