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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 4/1


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, April 1st

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

New Orleans Pelicans at *Los Angeles Lakers (-1.5, 233.5)

After the betting market opened in favor of Los Angeles it is New Orleans now that lays 1.5 on the road as of this morning. Anthony Davis could return to play, but how impactful can he be given that he has not played since Feb. 16? As far as health goes, the Pelicans are the healthiest they have been since the All-Star break. Their improved starting lineup is whole again and thriving, outscoring opponents by 11.3 points per 100 possessions with a 120.5 offensive rating. Rebounding is going to be the biggest factor in deciding the victor tonight. This Pelicans team is an incredible offensive rebounding unit, grabbing 37.5% of its misses when playing its starting lineup and in two games against the Lakers they have dominated the glass with a 30.6% offensive rebounding rate and aa 78.9% overall rebounding rate. Los Angeles has been a subpar rebounding team all season, coming into this game 21st in defensive rebounding (71.6%) and 24th in overall rebounding (48.8%). Davis should help somewhat, but he’s never been a dominant rebounder and his presence will only go so far. This line might be flipped already, but this number is still not in line with what I projected it to be, which is just over 2.5 points. New Orleans has too many matchup advantages to pass up, so I will be backing the road favorite here tonight.

Play: Pelicans (-1.5)

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