NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 2/4

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, February 4th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets (-4, 216.5)

In the last seven games the Cleveland Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS and since losing Darius Garland to injury their offense has been stuck in the mud. In the two games without Garland the Cavaliers have averaged 105.3 points per 100 possessions and shot 30.8% on 26.0 3-point attempts per game. With Garland sidelined the backcourt situation for Cleveland is a mess, and with him set to miss a third game tonight bettors should not expect it to get much better. Remember, Lauri Markkanen is sidelined as well, and both Collin Sexton and Ricky Rubio are gone. The personnel that is left for J.B. Bickerstaff has -7.2 net rating, averaging just 105.1 points per 100 possessions. Charlotte is coming off a poor performance in Boston and is 1-5 ATS in its last six games, but with Gordon Hayward potentially returning tonight its clear the Hornets are in a much better situation. Cleveland is a play against until Garland returns, or until the market makes a major adjustment which is not the case yet.

Play: Hornets (-4.5)

Boston Celtics (-7.5, 213) @ *Detroit Pistons

The strong defensive play from Boston continued last time out when it held Charlotte to 1.039 points per possession on Wednesday. In their last six games the Celtics are 5-1 SU and ATS and they are in a good position to continue that run tonight in Detroit. Cade Cunningham missed the Pistons’ loss to the Timberwolves last night, and his status is in question tonight. Detroit managed to put up 1.105 points per possession against Minnesota, but against Boston – which has limited its last six opponents to 96.6 points per 100 possessions and now ranks fourth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency – it will be a challenge to score efficiently without Cunningham. For that reason the market has pushed the Celtics up to -8.5 at most shops, and unless Cunningham is available do not expect the number to come back anytime soon.

*Chicago Bulls (-1.5, 232.5) @ Indiana Pacers

Once again Chicago’s defense is the center of attention in its overtime loss to Toronto last night. The Bulls allowed 1.176 points per possession to the Raptors and have now allowed 118.9 points per 100 possessions to their opponents over the last 15 games. It should come as no surprise to learn the Over is 10-4-1 during this stretch of subpar defensive play, and their opponent tonight is in a similar boat. Indiana is on a 6-0 run to the Over coming into tonight, and the Over is 8-2 since they lost Myles Turner to injury. Both teams have been two of the most efficient offenses in the league in recent weeks, but their defenses continue to struggle and as a result we have the second-highest total on the board today in this contest. The average closing total for Indiana in these 10 games has been 220 and only twice during this run for Chicago has a total closed 228 or higher, so it’s clear there’s been a massive adjustment here for those riding these trends into tonight. 

*Atlanta Hawks @ *Toronto Raptors (-1.5, 214.5)

Toronto keeps running into unfavorable situations but coming out of the other side unscathed, so it’s likely time to stop thinking poor scheduling spots will affect this team. The Raptors defeated the Bulls in overtime last night, playing its fourth overtime period in four games. Tonight, they are on the second leg of a back-to-back and playing their fifth game in seven nights which would be a natural play-against spot for any team, but Toronto is seemingly invincible as they enter tonight 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. Atlanta comes in on the second leg of a back-to-back as well, but they have some injury questions to potentially deal with tonight. John Collins was injured late in the win over Phoenix last night and could likely miss this contest, and prior to the game Trae Young was dealing with discomfort in his shoulder. Young played through it and looked brilliant in scoring 43 points, so he could be perfectly fine tonight, but it is something to keep in mind. A few days ago the Hawks had their 7-0 SU run ruined by Toronto, and they enter tonight in a much better situation than the Raptors do. If Trae Young plays, then the Hawks are the side to back here.

Houston Rockets @ *San Antonio Spurs (-3, 239)

This is an easy game to toss out from a betting perspective. Houston has been abysmal on defense and comes into this contest with the worst defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes (116.4). Since the beginning of January, San Antonio has not been much better, ranking 26th in defensive efficiency (116.0), and tonight they have some major injury issues on the report. Dejounte Murray missed the loss to Miami last night and is questionable to play tonight, as is Doug McDermott. Without those two on the floor the Spurs are outscored by 8.0 points every 100 possessions and they have a 104.2 offensive rating. If Murray and McDermott don’t play San Antonio is a very fragile favorite, and even if they do it’s a team that’s been one of the worst defensive teams over the last month.

Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz (-1.5, 227.5)

The market has reached its low point with Brooklyn. Rudy Gobert will miss his sixth consecutive game tonight with a calf strain and despite an overall record of 2-8 SU/2-7-1 ATS in the 10 games without Gobert the market has pushed this thing all the way to Jazz -5 at most shops. Brooklyn has been extremely poor against the number this season and is currently in the middle of an 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS slide, and in the last 19 games the team is an abysmal 5-14 ATS. It might seem like fading the Nets is the way to go, but is supporting the Jazz tonight the smart move? Without Gobert on the floor they have allowed 116.0 points per 100 possessions. Donovan Mitchell is back from a concussion, but Utah is 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 games which is a mark almost as bad as Brooklyn’s. I’ll push back on the market here knowing I have James Harden and Kyrie Irving on the floor tonight.

Play: Nets ( 4.5)

Best Bets Summary

Hornets (-4.5)

Nets (+ 4.5)

Season: 60-49-1

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