NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 2/11

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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, January 11th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Charlotte Hornets (-6.5, 226.5) at *Detroit Pistons

It’s been a while since either of these teams experienced a victory. Charlotte comes in on an 0-6 SU slide with a 1-6 ATS record in its previous seven. Detroit is 0-6 SU/1-5 ATS in its last six overall, and Cade Cunningham has missed their last five contests. The Pistons have been lifeless during this losing streak, posting a -16.5 net rating and losing by an average of 16.3 points per game. Cunningham is unlikely to play tonight after being downgraded before the meeting with Memphis yesterday, so it seems like the spot for Charlotte to right the ship, but they need their offense to wake up for that to happen. Over the course of this six-game losing streak the Hornets are putting up just 1.0 point per possession, and as a result all six games have gone Under. Gordon Hayward is also still sidelined which is not going to help this offense get back on track. Fading the Pistons might seem like an obvious strategy, but until the Hornets show an iota of consistency why would you lay these kinds of numbers on the road with them?

Cleveland Cavaliers (-6.5, 215.5) at Indiana Pacers

Indiana’s roster was gutted prior to their meeting with Atlanta on Wednesday, so a motley crew was forced to take the floor with the task of facing one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The result was not pretty, and a similar outfit will likely start again tonight. Tyrese Haliburton is expected to make his debut as a Pacer, but Malcolm Brogdon is questionable to play which means we will see heavy minutes from Keifer Sykes, Duane Washington and Terry Taylor again. These lineups for Indiana have a usual pattern of playing somewhat efficient offense with little to no defense and as a result Pacers games are 8-1 to the Over in the last nine. However, the Cavaliers might be the team that ruins that trend for Over bettors tonight. Cleveland is an extremely slow team that ranks 25th in pace (96.56) and 19th in offensive efficiency which works against this being a high-scoring affair. They are also an incredible defensive team inside which leads the league in rim defense (58.1%), and that is a problem for this version of the Pacers that have attempted over 40% of their attempts inside four feet in five of the last eight games.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Philadelphia 76ers (-9, 207.5)

The day after acquiring James Harden in a blockbuster deadline deal the 76ers will host the Thunder on the front of a back-to-back. It’s unknown if Harden will be available today, but it’s a precarious spot for Philadelphia given the status of their roster and the situation. Seth Curry and Andre Drummond are gone, and Tyrese Maxey is questionable to play which leaves the 76ers with a somewhat limited roster if Maxey can’t go. Oklahoma City is still extremely thing with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, among others, on the shelf with injury. Those absences showed in a big way Wednesday when Toronto blew them out by 19 and torched them for 1.194 points per possession. Joel Embiid is a massive mismatch for the Thunder which has absolutely nobody to matchup with him, so it does seem he is set for a huge night. The lone true center on the roster for the Thunder is Derrick Favors who gives up quite a bit of size to Embiid. It is not out of the cards at all for Embiid to dominate this matchup and lead Philadelphia to victory here. The market has shifted from the initial overnight in a big way, but I am wary of this spot for the 76ers. Not only due to the status of its roster, but also the potential for this team to overlook the Thunder with a very important game against Cleveland looming tomorrow.

San Antonio Spurs at Atlanta Hawks (-8, 232.5)

This is a negative scheduling situation for San Antonio. The team is on the second game of the annual Rodeo Road Trip while Atlanta is playing at home, where they are 8-1 SU/7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games, on three days of rest. In those nine home games the Hawks have averaged 118.9 points per 100 possessions and posted a + 9.3 net rating which is going to be a problem for the Spurs which have allowed 114.3 points per 100 possessions to their last 10 opponents. San Antonio is also down Derrick White, who was sent to Boston in a trade for Josh Richardson and Romeo Langford, which could set their offense back a step for the immediate future. The scheduling spot coupled with the Hawks’ recent play has the line as high as it is, but it’s not surprising to see little line movement here. San Antonio has the ability on offense to score with the best of the teams in the league, and their ability to get up the floor in transition could bother the league’s 25th-ranked transition defense. However, the Spurs have had issues with great guard play and the Hawks get that in droves with Trae Young. 

Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-4, 217.5)

This is a fantastic matchup between two teams peaking on opposite sides of the floor. Boston, which has been fantastic on defense all season, has held seven of their last nine opponents to under a point per possession. Denver has put up 118.4 points per 100 possessions in their last five contests and scored 110+  points in 10 of 12 games. It’s a fantastic matchup of strength against strength, and the market is showing an early support of the home team here. The Nuggets have generated most, if not all, of this offensive production with Nikola Jokic on the floor. He is averaging 27.6 points, 12.6 rebounds and 9.6 assists during this 12-game run the offense has been on, but the production has fallen off when he hits the bench. It’s why the Nuggets are only 5-6-1 ATS during this run despite winning eight of the 12 games. They’ve also played subpar defense, allowing 113.6 points per 100 possessions, which gives Boston a distinct advantage here. The Celtics have been maddeningly inconsistent all season on that end of the floor, but even recently that has turned around as they are putting up 115.7 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes over the last 10 contests. 

Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls (-4, 241)

One of the highest totals of the season is on this game right here, and it’s no surprise given how poorly these teams have played on that end of the floor. The Bulls are 27th in defensive efficiency over their last 18 games, allowing 119.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes, and as a result the Over is 13-4-1 in those games. The Timberwolves are 22nd in defensive efficiency over that same stretch (114.8), but during a recent 5-0 SU and ATS run their hyper-aggressive defense was much better in limiting opponents to 110.9 points. However, the injury report is lengthy for Minnesota tonight which throws a cloud over the handicap of this contest. Six players are questionable to play for the Timberwolves, including Anthony Edwards, Patrick Beverley and D’Angelo Russell. Not only are those three vital for Minnesota’s success, but they’re also vital to those who believe this game to be a high-flying shootout. If Russell or Edwards are not available tonight it could greatly alter the chances of this game going over that massive number. 

Best Bets Summary

None

Season Record: 60-53-1

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