NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 12/3


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, December 3rd

It is a fantastic Friday night card with incredible matchups to handicap; nine games and each of them is worth taking in.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers (-5, 208)

The Heat come into this contest severely short-handed. Jimmy Butler did not make the trip to Indiana, Bam Adebayo is done until January with a thumb injury and Markieff Morris, Victor Oladipo and Marcus Garrett all remain sidelined as well. Miami has struggled defensively as these injuries have ravaged the roster, allowing 124.9 points per 100 possessions over the last two games to Denver and Cleveland. Those two teams pummeled the Heat down low, combining to go 27-of-33 (81.8%) at the rim, while shooting a blistering 30-of-62 (48.4%) from the perimeter. The 3-point shooting likely won’t be an issue tonight against a Pacers team that is shooting 33.7% on the season, but that lack of rim protection will be something to watch. Miami is 28th in opponent shooting inside four feet, allowing 68.1% at the rim, so this issue is not a new development. Indiana takes a third of its shots at the rim and they have Domantas Sabonis who lives in that area of the floor. The Pacers could take advantage of Miami’s missing personnel, but they have their own absences to contend with. Justin Holiday is still out and T.J. McConnell will not play either due to a sore right wrist. The line is starting to creep up on Indiana, which is not surprising given the injuries for Miami, but be careful falling into this trap. The Pacers are 1-4 SU/2-3 ATS in their last five games due to an inconsistent offense that has managed just 107.4 points per 100 possessions over that stretch, and they’re missing a shooter and key reserve tonight.

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