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NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 1/21


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, January 21st

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Charlotte Hornets (-9.5, 221)

Defense is the focus of this matchup for both teams. For Charlotte, it’s about maintaining what has been an incredible run of defensive play. Since Dec. 20 the Hornets have the third-best defensive rating in non-garbage time minutes, allowing 106.6 points per 100 possessions to opponents. It’s been a great turnaround for Charlotte which ranked 30th in defensive efficiency in the 32 games prior to this run. Is it a turnaround though? According to Cleaning The Glass, if you factor in the quality of shot the Hornets have allowed during this defensive surge they would rank 29th in effective field goal percentage had their opponents shot the league average from each location. In other words, there is luck to this defensive run from the Hornets, but are the Thunder the team to press that luck? Oklahoma City is 29th in offensive efficiency this season (103.0) on the season, but their offensive philosophy of dribble-penetration and attacking the basket could be troublesome for Charlotte which has allowed opponents to take 32.6% of their attempts at the rim. On the other end, can the Thunder adequately defend the Hornets? Defense has been the on thing Oklahoma City has done well this season. They rank 19th in efficiency (111.1) and eighth in both frequency of rim attempts allowed (29.4%) and opponent rim shooting (63.4%). Oklahoma City is also seventh in transition defense (117.3) which is an area of the floor Charlotte thrives in on offense. The Hornets have done extremely well against lesser opponents like Houston and Detroit, but they lost outright to Orlando last week in an admittedly tough scheduling spot. The overnight line is identical the number Charlotte laid against Detroit, and I would expect this number dips given the stronger power rating on Oklahoma City.

Play: Thunder ( 9.5)

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