NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 11/5

November 5, 2021 09:09 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Thursday, November 4th

For the second time this season the Los Angeles Lakers fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder, this time it 107-104 at home by blowing a 19-point lead. Los Angeles is a work in progress on both ends of the floor and that was apparent last night, especially on offense where the team averaged just 1.04 points per possession. The Lakers held the Thunder to just 1.071 per possession, but their defense failed multiple times down the stretch, the most egregious moment being the Luguentz Dort dunk with 17.0 seconds left on the clock that Russell Westbrook allowed by inexplicably leaving him along on the low post. 

Los Angeles fell to 2-7 ATS on the season with the result and if you’re still betting this time at this point I have no idea what to tell you. The Lakers are one of two teams that has been favored in every game this season, the other being the Jazz, and bettors have laid an average of 6.3 points in those contests. There is no bargain in these lines with Los Angeles and yet the market continues to support them at the window because their uniforms are yellow with purple script. The buy-low point is coming for this team, but it will not be any time soon if bettors continue to lay inflated numbers.

Market Report for Friday, November 5th

It’s a good card today with nine contests scheduled so let’s not waste any time and dig in.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

San Antonio Spurs (-3.5, 212) at Orlando Magic

San Antonio will not have Jakob Poeltl on the floor for the foreseeable future as he enters COVID protocol, but it might not be the worst situation for the Spurs. Poeltl has not been great on defense this season, and with him on the floor San Antonio’s defensive rating jumped to 110.4 with opponents taking 38.9% of their attempts at the rim and shooting 64.8%. In fact, with him off the floor the Spurs are outscoring opponents by 0.5 points per 100 possessions. In a meeting with an Orlando team that takes 31.4% of its attempts at the rim it might help to get a poor rim defender off the floor. The Magic are coming off a brutal home loss to Boston on Wednesday night in which their offense mustered only 0.805 points per possession in non-garbage time. The offense has been a massive issue for Orlando this season, and it is why a team power rated as low as San Antonio is a road favorite. It should not come as a surprise that this line is up to -4 at most shops. Homecourt this season is grading out to be worth about one point so far, which means the market is telling us five points separate these teams on a neutral court. That seems high for a team like the Spurs, but do you really want to be sweating out a play on the Magic tonight?

Brooklyn Nets (-10, 212) at *Detroit Pistons

As we discussed in Wednesday’s market report, the Brooklyn Nets are figuring this thing out. They come into Friday on a 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS run in which they have outscored opponents by 13.6 points per 100 possessions with a 112.3 offensive rating. Tonight, is a rematch from Halloween in which the Nets won by 26 points and James Harden dropped a triple-double. The betting market has not adjusted the power rating on Brooklyn, and that theory is supported by the number they are laying tonight. In that meeting on Halloween the Nets closed -12 and covered with ease. This morning, they open as 10-point favorites, an identical power rating in a league that is showing homecourt is worth just a single point. Even more perplexing is the lack of the “back-to-back tax” that the market usually hangs a team playing on zero days of rest. There is always a danger in laying big numbers with teams like this on the road, as their focus is always going to be a question, but there is no doubt that there is some line value in this spot for Brooklyn. The total is starting to drop which is not surprising given how bad the Pistons have been on offense.

Play: Nets (-10)

Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards (-1, 225.5)

This is a meeting of two teams I believe are worth playing against going forward. The Washington Wizards have shown some cracks on the defensive end of the floor and their shooting numbers are among the worst in the NBA. Memphis is 30th in defensive efficiency in allowing 114.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. The Grizzlies’ rim defense has been abhorrent, allowing opponents to take 35.0% of their attempts within four feet while shooting 66.1% from that area of the floor. Washington comes into tonight as the 6th-best rim shooting team and it seems that this is a game in which both teams could exploit the other on defense. Memphis is now the favorite in some spots and if that continues to move in that direction there will be some value on the home team, but for now this is a stay away for me as I am looking to play against these two as often as possible. It is worth pointing out that this total is down to 223.5 which is surprising given what is bothering both of these teams. 

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5, 217.5)

Jrue Holiday is listed as probable for this contest and it seems like we’re going to get a solid game between two Eastern Conference playoff teams. New York has dropped its last two games both SU and ATS while posting a -10.2 net rating. Their offense has put up just 104.7 points per 100 possessions and it should not come as a surprise that this offensive slump coincides with them shooting 33.9% from the arc. High-volume shooting leads to variance and they are amid the negative part of that variance. The Knicks could find their stroke against a Bucks team that is allowing opponents to take 38.2% of their attempts from beyond the arc. The addition of Holiday to the lineup for Milwaukee throws a fly in the ointment for this team for a power rating perspective, as their numbers at this point are heavily skewed. New York is solid, but I believe them to be overvalued by the market. However, having not seen Holiday play it leaves me on the sidelines here.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (-6, 212.5)

Toronto is 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in its last five games but it may time to jump off the train as they are beginning to enter overvalued territory. Cleveland is clearly better than the market is giving them credit for, now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 6-3 ATS on the season. However, they open + 6 here in Toronto, a point more than they were catching at Charlotte and 1.5 points less than what the number was in Los Angeles. The betting market has responded by taking this down to + 5.5 and I agree with the move. The Raptors have been brilliant during this run, but at some point the market has to start respecting this Cavaliers defense. Cleveland is allowing just 88.7 points per 100 plays in the halfcourt and 59.5% at the rim this season, two of Toronto’s biggest weaknesses on offense. It is a matchup that bodes well for the visitor here. It is no surprise that this total has dropped to 208 given what these two teams can do on that end of the floor.

Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5, 215.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

On Wednesday night the Los Angeles Clippers went into Minnesota and had their best offensive game of the season. They averaged 1.225 points per possession and scored 126 points while going 21-of-36 from deep. It will obviously be hard to replicate those exact numbers, but do not dismiss this performance as a one-off showing for Los Angeles. Paul George has been playing incredible basketball, and as of today is the league’s leading scorer. The Clippers have been waiting for the team to show up around him and it finally did against an overvalued defense in the Timberwolves. Meanwhile, Minnesota is starting to enter rocky territory. They are 1-5 ATS in their last six games with a -4.1 net rating and a 101.3 offensive rating. That will be a problem against this Clippers team which is allowing only 103.8 point per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. It is interesting to see the market bet this total Under again after the last game went over by 28 points, but given the offensive struggles of Minnesota and how good this Clippers defense is it makes sense for this to be lower scoring than the first meeting.

New Orleans Pelicans at Golden State Warriors (-8.5, 219.5)

If you’ve been following the league on a nightly basis I have a question for you: Is Golden State three points worse than the Phoenix Suns? No way, right? Well that is what this opening line is telling us at this point, but the market is reacting properly as Golden State is now -9.5 at most shops. The Pelicans were just in Phoenix catching 11.5 but only 8.5 at the open here which seems light. The Warriors lead the league in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (99.0) and they face an offense tonight that is managing just 102.2 points per 100 possessions. Bettors are pushing this total down as well and it is another move I agree with. Golden State should be able to hold this offense down tonight, but its own offense, which is putting up just 108.3 points per 100 possessions, has not been explosive.

Charlotte Hornets at Sacramento Kings (-2, 226)

The luster has worn off Charlotte after a 3-0 SU and ATS start to the season. It enters this contest 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four with a -7.0 net rating and a defense that has allowed 113.2 points per 100 possessions over that stretch. The Hornets are also somewhat beat up with LaMelo Ball popping up on the injury report, though he is probable, and P.J. Washington expected to miss this game. They face a Kings team that is 4-1 ATS in its last five games and coming off of a strong home win over a lesser Pelicans team. My initial thought on this is that the number is somewhat high on Sacramento, but that is with Charlotte at full strength. In that case my line comes out much closer to PK, but Washington is a massive part of this offense and their small-ball center. With his status in doubt this is not a side I can pull the trigger on. It is not surprising to see this total get bumped up to 227 as both teams are going to have issues with the other on that end of the floor.

Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5, 222.5)

If you have followed my work here on ‘The Edge’ with Matt Youmans you know that I am always searching for opportunities to buy low or sell high on teams. Last night, we sold high on Miami and came away with a win. Well, this seems like an opportunity to buy low on Portland. The betting market was overzealous in its support of the Trail Blazers on their east coast road trip, closing them as the favorite in every game, and I even took advantage last Sunday with a wager on Charlotte. Now, it is time to comeback and buy Blazer stock at a cheap price. Last week this team was -3.5 against the Los Angeles Clippers and blew them out by 19 points. They were laying 2.5 against Phoenix and won that game by 29 points. The Pacers are power rated the same as the Clippers and a point worse than the Suns? Not in my ratings, so this seems like an opportunity. Indiana has won two straight and caught New York on a bad shooting night, but Portland much more comfortable at home with a 3-1 SU and ATS record and a league-leading + 15.7 net rating.

Play: Trail Blazers (-3.5)

Best Bet Summary

Nets (-10)

Trail Blazers (-3.5)

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