NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 11/26


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, November 26th

Hope you all had a great Thanksgiving! Now, let's handicap some hoops. We've got a massive 11-game card with plenty of opportunity.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers (-10, 206.5)

Last time we saw Detroit they were getting thrashed by Milwaukee on the second leg of a back-to-back. It was a poor spot for the Pistons, as the night prior they blew a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter to the Heat. However, even with the loss to the Bucks this team is 6-4 ATS in its last 10 games and playing better basketball than it had been to start the season. Los Angeles has not been in great form, posting a 2-4 SU and ATS record over its last six games with a -3.9 net rating due to an offense that cannot find any consistency. Over these six games the Clippers are putting up just 99.5 points per 100 possessions, an offensive rating that is three points worse than what the Pistons have averaged. However, Los Angeles’ defensive intensity remains intact, and they have allowed opponents to score just 103.4 points per 100 possessions during this six-game slump while still ranking second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency for the season. This line is up from the opener hung yesterday to -13 almost everywhere and that is somewhat surprising. Los Angeles has shown little consistency on offense, and Detroit’ best quality is a defense that has some real potential when it rolls out certain lineups. The Clippers should be able to defend well here, but this is quite a few points to swallow for an offense that has consistently been among the least efficient in the NBA.

Play: Pistons (+ 12.5)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets (-3, 224)

Prior to the season the Timberwolves were my darkhorse team to grab the final seed in the Western Conference and over the last eight games they have finally started to look like that team. Minnesota comes into this meeting with Charlotte on a five-game winning streak and a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS record in its last eight games. The biggest difference has been a defense that has limited its eight opponents to 99.6 points per 100 possessions, a defensive rating tied with Phoenix for best in the league over that stretch. However, the Hornets are not exactly reeling coming into tonight. Charlotte is 7-1 SU/6-1-1 ATS in the last eight games with a solid brand of defense limiting opponents to 102.5 points per 100 possessions. The matchup to watch here will be on the interior for Minnesota. Over the course of this torrid stretch their rim protection has still been a question. Opponents have only taken an average of 32.6% of their attempts within four feet against the Timberwolves, but four of their opponents have shot over 71.4% in that area of the floor. Minnesota ranks 18th in frequency of attempts allowed within four feet, and good rim shooting teams have been able to exploit that. This Hornets team will attack off the bounce with a high frequency, and that could be a problem for the visitors. One shop is showing Hornets -1.5 as of my writing this morning and if that number is available to you that is playable. Charlotte has the horses to exploit some weaknesses of Minnesota and the market seems to be somewhat low for the home team.

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