NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 11/19


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Thursday, November 18th

It was a somewhat quiet night in the NBA yesterday, but the story is Golden State yet again. The Warriors entered the fourth quarter against the Cavaliers down 81-68 but Steph Curry dropped 20 of his 40 points and Golden State limited Cleveland to eight points and got the win and cover. The victory improved the Warriors’ record to 13-2 SU/11-4 ATS, both records the best in the NBA.

Market Report for Friday, November 19th

It is a heart nine-game slate tonight with a ton of intriguing matchups so let’s get into it.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Indiana Pacers at Charlotte Hornets (-3, 219)

Indiana has dropped its last two games both SU and ATS, and its offense has been the biggest culprit. Against both the Knicks and Pistons the Pacers managed less than a point per possession and fewer than 90 points while shooting 23.6% from deep across both games. This lull in offense has coincided with the loss of Chris Duarte to injury, and he remains questionable and without an official timetable for a return. However, it is certainly plausible this offense can take advantage of a Hornets defense giving up 109.4 points per 100 possessions. Charlotte ranks 23rd in opponent frequency of attempts and 25th in opponent rim shooting (67.1%) this season, which could be a problem against a team in Indiana that takes 32.5% of its attempts at the rim and ranks 10th in shooting within four feet (65.7%). The Hornets have their own offensive advantage as well though, and its worth more: Shooting. Charlotte not only shoots 37.6% from the perimeter, better than Indiana’s 34.9% mark, they are facing a perimeter defense that has allowed opponents to take 40.4% of their attempts from deep and shoot 36.2%. There’s been a strong push this morning toward Indiana and some shops got to Hornets -1.5 which indicates some respected support for Indiana. I tend to agree with the line move here. Charlotte was just home against Washington in a game that closed PK but opened -3.5 over Indiana. It seemed like quite the swing against a similarly power rated team in the Pacers.

*Golden State Warriors (-9, 210.5) at Detroit Pistons

The Warriors needed a 36-8 fourth quarter to pull away and cover against Cleveland last night, and they are back at tonight against the Pistons which are 3-3 SU/4-2 ATS in their last six games. Rookie Cade Cunningham has been a big part of this turnaround with 16.2 points, 5.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game for Detroit during this six-game run, and Dwane Casey has had some really solid returns on a few lineups with Cunningam on the floor. The Pistons have a solid chance at extending this cover run tonight too, as it does not seem Steph Curry will be available for the Warriors tonight as he deals with a hip injury suffered in the win over Brooklyn. This is a completely different team without Curry, as their net rating drops to + 0.9 without him on the floor and their offensive efficiency plummets from 116.8 to 103.9 in those minutes. Curry’s potential absence is why this line has dropped from -9 to -7 in most spots and will likely continue to drop when he is officially announced as out. Detroit has been solid defensively and without Curry on the floor this has the makings of an extremely low-scoring affair. It’s a low total, but it should be lower without Curry active.

Play: UNDER 210 

Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics (-2, 212.5)

LeBron James has a “50-50 chance” to play tonight according to reports, and his potential presence explain the initial market move toward Los Angeles. This morning almost every shop reached Boston -1 before a unanimous move back to -1.5 which is where we are at right now. Boston turned in a pitiful performance against Atlanta on Wednesday, allowing 1.17 points per possession while allowing Atlanta to go 17-of-23 within four feet of the basket. Their offense could not take advantage of a poor Hawks defense either, putting up just 1.042 points per possession. It was the third consecutive game in which the Celtics put up an offensive rating at or below that figure, and their opponent tonight has had its own issues on that end of the floor. In three of the last four games Los Angeles has been held to a point per possession or fewer and in the nine games this month the Lakers are averaging just 104.2 points per 100 possessions. Even if James comes back that does not fix the problems for Los Angles. With him on the court this season with Anthony Davis and LeBron James they are averaging just 107.7 points per 100 possessions. That mark is better than what they have put up in November, but only good enough for the 47th percentile of lineups. Boston could also have both Jaylen Brown and Robert Williams back from injury tonight as well. The Celtics have been somewhat inconsistent, but with Brown and Jayson Tatum together this team is outscoring opponents by 11.1 points per 100 possessions. Back home against a struggling Laker team, even with James potentially back, I will lay the short number.

Play: Celtics (-1.5)

Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets (-13, 209.5)

Brooklyn bettors were on the wrong end of some bad luck last time out against Cleveland and they have another massive number to swallow tonight against Orlando. The Nets have been on a decent run when it comes to wins, posting a 9-2 SU record over the last 11 games, but those contests have had some big numbers and as a result they are just 5-5-1 ATS on the closing number. Orlando has not been great on either end of the floor, but their offensive has been particularly repugnant lately with an average of 97.3 points per 100 possessions over the last seven games. Jalen Suggs made his return in the win over New York the other day, but he is questionable yet again with a right quad contusion. The Magic improve greatly on defense with him on the floor and their net rating improves by 10.2 points per 100 possessions in his minutes. If bettors are going to back the underdog, which seems to be the case as this is down to 12.5 almost everywhere, he should be on the floor.

Oklahoma City Thunder at Milwaukee Bucks (-13, 214.5)

Oklahoma City is now 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in the month of November after the win and cover over Houston on Wednesday. This team has clearly been playing above its head lately and now they have the unfortunate task of facing a Milwaukee team that is almost whole. For the first time in about three weeks the Bucks had their big three of Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton on the floor together against the Lakers. The result was a 109-102 victory and bettors should only expect this team to improve with better availability from its stars. With those three on the floor together Milwaukee has a + 19.8 net rating and an offensive efficiency mark of 119.8 per 100 possessions. It is clearly a short sample size, but it speaks to how much better they are when whole. One shop has dropped to -12.5 but I would be careful in underrating Milwaukee due to past results. This team is finally getting healthy and these spots against bad teams is when the Bucks usually put it on. 

*Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5, 216) at New Orleans Pelicans

Los Angeles’ lack of personnel really showed last night in Memphis, especially on defense. With no real option at center outside of Ivica Zubac the Clippers were demolished by their drop coverage on pick-and-rolls, allowing Ja Morant to torch them for 28 points on 13-of-21 shooting. One would expect a similar lack of personnel tonight with no Nic Batum and the usual absence of Marcus Morris. They might be able to take advantage of a Pelicans team that is 1-8 SU/2-7 ATS this month with a -11.5 net rating, but bettors are not getting a discount on the price. New Orleans has been particularly awful on defense, allowing 115.7 points per 100 possessions during this slide, but there are better situations for bettors to wager on than a short-handed Clippers team on the backend of a back-to-back.

Chicago Bulls at *Denver Nuggets (-4, 211.5)

Last time we saw Chicago it blew a 15-point halftime lead in Portland and lost both SU and ATS to the Trail Blazers. It is tough to maintain this level of play and their short-comings were apparent in getting just 20 points from the bench in that loss. Tonight, they wrap up this west coast trip in Denver which is always a tough spot to be in for teams to be in. The Nuggets have their own issues though, specifically on offense. In their los to Philadelphia last night they put up just 1.0 point per possession against a team that had allowed 117.9 per 100 possessions to its previous five opponents. Chicago still does not have Nikola Vucevic in the starting lineup, and given the scheduling spot this seems like a better time to back Denver. However, the Nuggets’ -17.3 net rating in the minutes without Nikola Jokic on the floor it is hard to lay points with this team in any situation.

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns (-7.5, 212.5)

Phoenix extended its winning streak to 10 games on Wednesday when it defeated Dallas 105-98 in the first of this two-game set, but they failed to cover for the second consecutive game. The betting market is charging its usual “rematch tax” in this contest, dropping this line a point from the closing line last time out. Luka Doncic is considered doubtful to play with his ankle injury, so bettors will yet again need this short-handed Mavericks team to stay inside a somewhat large number. In their first meeting Phoenix was torched from the perimeter, allowing Dallas to hit 16-of-30 3-point attempts, but inside the arc the Mavericks went 22-of-60 (36.6%). If the Suns can tighten up the perimeter defense it is certainly plausible they can cover a shorter number than the one they were laying in the first meeting. 

*Toronto Raptors at Sacramento Kings (-4, 219.5)

In Thursday’s column I mentioned that Toronto was a team I was willing to back last night had OG Anunoby and Precious Achiuwa been available. Neither was and the Raptors were run off the floor in the second half and failed to cover. Sacramento is a much lesser opponent than Utah, but the mantra remains the same for me here. This Toronto team does not have a ton of depth, and if two starters are sidelined they are a much worse team. The Kings are in the midst of a 1-5 SU and ATS slide, but aare perfectly capable of righting the ship against this version of Toronto.

Best Bets Summary

Warriors/Pistons UNDER (210)

Celtics (-1.5)

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