NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 11/12


Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, or check out The Edge daily at 4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT.

All game lines via VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report Recap for Thursday, November 11th

It was a short slate yesterday with all three underdogs covering the spread. Los Angeles was the lone favorite to win outright and that is the team’s sixth consecutive victory.

Market Report for Friday, November 12th

Big slate and little time so let’s get started.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

New York Knicks (-1, 225) at Charlotte Hornets

After the loss to the Bucks on Wednesday the Knicks fell to 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Over that span they have allowed 113.5 points per 100 possessions, have a -3.5 net rating and opponents have shot 40.6% from the perimeter. New York’s perimeter defense is killing them, and Charlotte has the personnel to exacerbate that issue. The Hornets are an analytically sound team on offense that works off dribble penetration. They own the third-highest frequency of attempts within four feet while ranking second in 3-point shooting (38.5%). New York’s starting lineup is also one of the worst in the NBA, leading the league in possessions played but ranking in the 8th percentile in net rating (-15.6). Charlotte is not a perfect team by any stretch, especially on defense, but this Knicks team is overvalued by the market and I will take my shot any time I believe there to be line value.

Play: Hornets (+ 1.5)

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers (-4.5, 204)

For the first time this season the Cleveland Cavaliers are favorites. The Cavaliers had their winning streak snapped on Wednesday when they blew a late lead against the Wizards, and now their role is flipped against the Pistons which are quietly finding their footing. Detroit is 4-3 ATS in its last seven games and comes on a short 2-0 ATS run after beating Houston. Cade Cunningham is starting to look more comfortable, and he is coming off his best start of the season in which he scored 20 points on 8-of-18 shooting, 4-of-8 from deep, with four rebounds and three assists. The Pistons’ starting lineup with Cunningham on the floor is + 2.3 per 100 possessions and has a 97.7 defensive rating. It is not surprising to see the market move toward Cleveland here, but bettors might getting a bit overzealous and not taking into account the improvement Detroit has shown recently.

Milwaukee Bucks (-1.5, 214.5) at Boston Celtics

Jaylen Brown remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and the Milwaukee Bucks still do not have Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez or Khris Middleton. Other than that, these teams are at full strength! Boston grabbed a big win over Toronto on Wednesday to improve to 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four games with blowout wins over the Raptors and Heat. The team’s + 10.6 net rating is tied for second over this run and its defense has limited opponents to 93.9 points per 100 possessions. It is a good sign for the Celtics, but their offense has managed only 104.5 points per 100 and is now 20th in the league (106.9). Milwaukee is starting to find its stride with this group now that there is some consistency to this lineup, and its last two games have seen the Bucks drop offensive ratings of 120.6 and 118.9 which are the two of the better offensive ratings this team has dropped in a game this season. The market is up to -2.5 in favor of Milwaukee and anything past + 3 is solid value on Boston in my opinion. These are two flawed teams and the Bucks’ bench still has issues when Giannis Antetokounmpo leaves the floor.

Portland Trail Blazers (-5.5, 224) at Houston Rockets

An 0-6 SU and ATS record with a -12.3 net rating, a number just 0.4 points better than the Pelicans, will not deter the betting market from supporting the Trail Blazers on the road. Portland has been abysmal on defense away from home, giving up 117.1 points per 100 possessions, the worst mark on the road this season. There is certainly a point at which there is value on Portland in this situations, but is it really here? With a team this bad on the road bettors should not be willing to give away points so easily and that the case here with this line up a full point. On top of that, Norm Powell is questionable to play with a quad strain and Damian Lillard is feeling the abdomen injury he has been dealing with for a “longtime”. As bad as Houston is, and they are bad, there are much better situations out there to risk your hard-earned income on.

Brooklyn Nets (-7.5, 211.5) at New Orleans Pelicans

The wheels have fallen off in New Orleans. General manager David Griffin is under fire and reportedly got into it with former head coach Alvin Gentry when the team was in Sacramento last week. The team has lost eight straight and has failed to cover its five contests, losing those five by an average margin of 18.0 points. Their offense is among the worst in the NBA at 101.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and there is little indication as to when Brandon Ingram will return from injury. From a power rating perspective this number is cheap for Brooklyn. The Nets were laying 10 in Orlando the other night and 9.5 in Detroit last Friday. New Orleans is not better than those two teams in its current state and it would not be surprising to see this number start to climb, especially considering the clean injury report for Brooklyn.

Play: Nets (-7.5)

Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies (PK, 219.5)

Can Phoenix take advantage of the poor defense Memphis has put out on the floor this season? The Grizzlies remain 30th in defensive efficiency, 1.3 points worse than the 29th-ranked Pelicans, giving up 114.6 points per 100 possessions. The Suns come in on a 6-0 SU/5-1 ATS in which they have outscored their opponents by 8.1 points per 100 possessions. They rank 4th in rim shooting and 10th in 3-point shooting on the season, two areas of the floor Memphis has struggled to defend. However, the Suns are a mid-range team that ranks 28th in both rim frequency and 3-point frequency, and there is trepidation on my part to support them due to their love for that area of the floor, but not enough to keep me away. Memphis has been getting by on some luck in these contests, and according to Cleaning The Glass’ win differential metric this Grizzlies team has won 2.2 more games than a normal team with their statistical output would. 

Play: Suns (+ 1.5)

Sacramento Kings (-3.5, 218.5) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Oklahoma City continues to impress and has now covered four straight and six of seven heading into this contest with Sacramento. The Thunder are still a relatively poor team, but their net rating of -1.4 over these seven games suggests the gap between them and the Kings is not that large. Sacramento has dropped its last three both SU and ATS and its defensive efficiency is down to 25th in non-garbage time minutes (110.8). The market does not seem to believe in the run here from the Thunder as this line is up to -4 in favor of the Kings and I disagree with the move. In this game it would be underdog or pass for me.

Dallas Mavericks (-2.5, 218) at San Antonio Spurs

Like Memphis, Dallas has been getting by with smoke and mirrors. Only the Mavericks have a higher win differential than the Grizzlies, and their -3.5 net rating and -3.0 point differential suggest a swoon is coming. Dallas fell in Chicago on Wednesday by 10 points but today they find themselves as 2.5-point favorites on the road against a San Antonio team that has covered three of four and is 7-4 ATS on the season. This matchup is between the 8th-ranked defense in the Spurs and the 22nd-ranked offense in the Mavericks. Dallas has been an overvalued favorite all season long and that is represented by its 7-4 SU/3-7-1 ATS record.

Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets (-4.5, 215.5)

Atlanta is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games with a 118.9 defensive rating, but luckily they face a Denver offense that is 23rd in offensive efficiency at 106.1 points per 100 possessions. Michael Porter Jr. is still out with a back injury, but Nikola Jokic should be back after serving a one-game suspension in the Nuggets win over the Pacers. Is Atlanta going to be any better on defense here and stop the skid? If Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter, two of their best defenders, do not play it is hard to make the case. Atlanta is starting to look quite a bit like those Pacers teams Nate McMillan coached, and that is not a good sign. Betting market has pushed this up to Denver -5 and that move makes sense to me. The Nuggets have some indicators that they are a better team than what they have put forth.

Chicago Bulls at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 221.5)

Chicago continues to deal with a rash of absences, and it could finally catch up to them here. Nikola Vucevic is in COVID protocol and Coby White is still out as well. How can this team, with the third-lowest scoring bench, continue to win games with such little offensive firepower? Golden State comes into tonight allowing just 100.8 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes and their bench is one of the best defensive units in the NBA. Draymond Green is questionable to play with a thigh injury and that is what keeps me from adding the Warriors to the best bets in the column. Should Green play count me in, but I will need confirmation on that later in the day.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Lakers (-3.5, 225)

Los Angeles has won and covered two straight, but one was a great buy-low opportunity against Charlotte and the other came against a short-handed Miami team that lost Jimmy Butler in the middle of the game. Minnesota has dropped its last six both SU and ATS with no signs of improvement as the team has been outscored by 11.0 points every 100 possessions. This line is right where I made it and frankly, I would rather bet against Matt Youmans surpassing 30 McRibs (A near certainty) than I would this game.

Best Bet Summary

Hornets (+ 1.5)

Nets (-7.5)

Suns (+ 1.5)

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