NBA betting market report: Daily picks, advice for Friday 11/11

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 11, 2022 07:50 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA Odds page.

Market Report for Friday, November 11th

* Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-16 | Units: -1.81 | ROI: -6.12%

Cleveland Cavaliers at Golden State Warriors (-3, 230)

The Warriors have not covered a game in which Steph Curry played since Oct. 27 when they played the Heat at home and covered as 8-point favorites. It would seem foolhardy to chase this ghost with Golden State once more, but there is a different angle to attack this from tonight against Cleveland. The Warriors clearly have some issues with their bench, and it has led to some of these poor performances. When Curry leaves the floor they are -20.1 per 100 possessions with a 99.2 offensive rating, compared to +8.1 per 100 possessions and 121.4 offensive rating. Steve Kerr generally plays Curry the first 10 minutes of the first quarter, so instead of trusting this team for an entire game I will look to bet them when their optimal lineup is out on the floor. Cleveland is showing some sluggishness on this road trip, dropping its last two games and allowing 1.255 points per possession. Let’s make it a short sweat tonight and bet on the Golden State starters to do what they do.

Play: Warriors 1Q (-0.5)

Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics (-5, 233.5)

Both teams have been wildly inconsistent, and it is due to their subpar defensive efforts to start the season. Boston comes into this game 21st in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, allowing 113.5 points per 100 possessions. Denver is 23rd and allowing 113.6 per 100 possessions. Both teams also rank in the top four in non-garbage time offensive efficiency, so one would assume a high-scoring affair tonight, but this number has been bet down to 230.5 consensus. The side has been bet down as well, but not by much as the consensus line is Celtics -4.5 and is likely due to Malcolm Brogdon’s injury that will keep him out tonight. As far as the bet is concerned, let’s go with a player prop and hit up the rebound prop for Nikola Jokic. It’s high at 11.5 but the Over is +100 and it’s a poor matchup for Boston. The Celtics are 20th in overall rebounding rate due to their lack of size down low. They have had trouble keeping true bigs off the glass, and Jokic fits that bill nicely. This will be a half-unit play on Over 11.5 rebounds tonight.

Play: Jokic OV 11.5 REB (+100) for 0.5u

Best Bet Recap

Warriors 1Q (-0.5)

Jokic OV 11.5 REB (+100) for 0.5u

The Rest

Toronto Raptors (-4.5, 221) at Oklahoma City Thunder

Toronto’s frontcourt was dealt another blow when they lost Precious Achiuwa for an indefinite amount of time due to an ankle injury. Now down both Achiuwa and Pascal Siakam, this team is becoming thing up front, much like it was last season. Oklahoma City could be in line to take advantage here, but the betting market does not seem to care for the injuries to the Raptors, as we’re looking at -5.5 in favor of the road team at multiple shops. I would be inclined to look the Thunder’s way here tonight, but the injury to Darius Bazley is a big one. He is one of Oklahoma City’s best defenders, improving their defensive rating by 11.7 points per 100 possessions when he is on the floor. Then there is the matter of the team’s -15.3 net rating and 99.1 points per 100 possessions scored without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander on the floor. Interesting note to monitor tonight for in-game bettors: The Thunder have the third best net rating in the third quarter this season (+13.6). Perhaps a third quarter wager, depending on the scenario, can be in play tonight.

Phoenix Suns (-7, 214) at Orlando Magic

Phoenix did not need Chris Paul on Wednesday when it took down Minnesota, and now it gets a favorable matchup against Orlando which could be without Paolo Banchero once again due to injury. Paul is questionable once again tonight, as is Paolo Banchero, so there is too much potential volatility with this number to get involved from a preflop standpoint. For those reading, I want to start tracking the point totals for Banchero going forward, especially against teams with defenders like Mikal Bridges who can matchup with him. The Magic have faced some weak defensive teams to start the season, but as it progresses and Banchero is more of a focal point of opposing defenses it would track that his scoring dips, and that will be something to jump on with his inflated point totals when they are offered. 

Detroit Pistons at New York Knicks (-7, 224.5)

Over the last eight games New York has allowed 114.4 points per 100 possessions, and that has led to a -7.7 net rating. Tom Thibodeau is tinkering with the starting lineup, and the team is 2-6 ATS in these eight games as a result. They did cover against Detroit laying a similar number back on Oct. 21 but at this point the Knickerbockers cannot be trusted as a big favorite. Cade Cunningham is questionable to play, but once he is confirmed to be active the Pistons will likely be an add for me tonight.

Milwaukee Bucks at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 222)

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday are unavailable tonight, so that is why we see this jarring number of San Antonio as a favorite over the Bucks. It might seem like fading Milwaukee is the move here, but the team is only -0.8 per 100 possessions without Antetokounmpo and Holiday on the floor this season, and their offensive rating of 114.5 in those possessions is above average. It would not be shocking to see this team have some offensive success against the 29th ranked defense which allowed 118.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies (-6.5, 236.5)

Minnesota is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games with -6.6 net rating and is failing to play adequate basketball on both ends of the floor. They are not the most attractive side at this point, but the market is moving in their direction, driving this number down to Grizzlies -4.5 consensus. Memphis has been hit-or-miss itself, an enters this game 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games. The market has clearly been too strong on both teams, but something has to give tonight.

Sacramento Kings (-1, 226) at Los Angeles Lakers

LeBron James is out and the betting market is all over Sacramento, pushing this number up to -4 consensus as of this morning. Los Angeles is -10.6 per 100 possessions with a 119.9 defensive rating without James on the floor, but the Kings are allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions defensively. The market might be moving too quick on this one, and a Russell Westbrook led Lakers squad might prove to be somewhat formidable tonight. Not surprisingly, this total is up to 229.5 consensus.

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