NBA Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Thursday, November 17th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

November 17, 2022 07:38 AM
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Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.

Market Report for Thursday, November 17th

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 15-21 | Units: -6.31 | ROI: -18.54%

None on a short slate today with injury news altering the lines for two of the contests on the card.

The Rest

San Antonio Spurs at Sacramento Kings (-7, 238)

Sacramento is on quite the run heading into this game with San Antonio. The Kings have covered five straight, and the team is 7-2 SU/8-1 ATS in its last nine games with a +5.4 net rating in non-garbage time. Not surprisingly, Sacramento has made its hay with an offense that put up 118.8 points per 100 possessions over the course of this run, and now ranks fourth on the season. It would seem that hosting the Spurs, a team which has allowed 117.5 points per 100 possessions on the season, is a perfect matchup for the Kings, but this defense would make me hesitate in laying such a spread. Sacramento has only outscored opponents by 1.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time for the season because its 115.0 defensive rating is the fourth worst in the league. The Spurs have covered four of five with an offense that is effective enough to stay inside big numbers laid by poor defensive opponents, and that is the situation tonight. There has not been much movement on the side, but the total is down from 238 to 235.5 consensus. 

Brooklyn Nets at Portland Trail Blazers (-1.5, 220.5)

Last time Brooklyn was on the court their defense gave up 153 points to Sacramento, and now that same group is tasked with containing Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers. The good news is that Portland actually hasn’t been that effective on offense this season. They rank 16th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (112.7) and in the minutes without Lillard on the floor their offensive rating is just 107.3 per Cleaning The Glass. The Trail Blazers have been surprisingly good on the defensive end of the floor, but that seems to be getting done with some smoke and mirrors, as Cleaning The Glass’ location effective field goal percentage metric ranks them 30th defensively. Perhaps Brooklyn can expose this weakness of Portland’s, especially if Jusuf Nurkic and Justise Winslow cannot play, both of whom are questionable tonight. Situationally, it's not the best spot for the Nets which are on the last of a four-game road trip which has suddenly turned sour, and we’re seeing the market react as such. Portland is now -2.5 consensus with the total dropping to 219.5 at most shops. Should Nurkic and Winslow miss this game the Nets do become more of an option, as the Trail Blazers’ defense should have some trouble containing Durant.

Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Clippers (-9, 215.5)

The month of November has brought on some more consistent play from Los Angeles. The Clippers are 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in these eight games with a +2.9 net rating in non-garbage time. Only outsourcing opponents by 2.9 points per 100 possessions should not instill confidence in anyone looking to lay a big number with Los Angeles today, and neither should the injury report. Paul George is questionable with a hand injury, and if he cannot go then the Clippers’ offense will likely disappear. In the eight games this month George is averaging 26.4 points on 48.3% shooting from the floor and 37.1% from deep, and still this offense has only put up 111.1 points per 100 possessions. When he leaves the floor their offensive rating plummets to 95.7 per Cleaning The Glass. Despite the questionable tag for George the market is moving up on the total, as it is 216.5 consensus, but if he does not play expect that to drop to lower than the open of 215.5.

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

The Lombardi Line: Pay attention to the offseason moves in baseball, futures prices are changing. As teams build their roster through free agency and trades, monitor the futures markets.View more tips

The Greg Peterson Experience: Fade bad NFL teams on lookahead lines, because they get steamed after another bad performance. View more tips

 

PRO PICKS

Paul Howard: Seahawks Win NFC West +350. View more picks

Gill Alexander: Bengals (-6) vs. Browns. View more picks

 

 

 

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