Welcome to the daily NBA betting market report, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!
All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
Market Report for Sunday, November 20th
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 15-23 | Units: -8.31 | ROI: -23.07%
Best Bet Recap
No best bets preflop today. I will be watching Golden State and Houston for some in-game opportunities on the Warriors.
New York Knicks at Phoenix Suns (-5.5, 226)
Despite averaging less than 10 points per game Chris Paul is an impactful player for Phoenix, and his absence is clearly being felt on defense. Since Paul’s injury the Suns have allowed 121.5 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and four of the five games have gone Over the total. He’s been ruled out yet again today, so we should expect a similar defensive performance from Phoenix once more tonight. Meanwhile, New York is on the front end of a back-to-back with a meeting in Oklahoma City with the Thunder on deck. Their west coast trip has been successful, and it could get even better with the return of Mitchell Robinson who is listed as questionable to play and practiced Friday in San Francisco. As far as this line is concerned, the struggles of the Suns’ defense has not scared off the betting market. Phoenix is up to -6.5 consensus with the total bet up to 227.5 which falls in line with the recent trend for the Suns.
Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards (-5.5, 221.5)
Since losing LaMelo Ball to injury it would seem Charlotte has been putting up quality offensive performances, but do not be fooled. The Hornets have only averaged 106.8 points per 100 possessions in the two games without him, and that speaks to their season-long trend of averaging just 106.4 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time without him on the floor. It would track that they struggle to score efficiently once more without him tonight, especially against a Washington team that is fifth in defensive rebounding rate (74.6%) and will snuff out any second chance point opportunities that Charlotte can get. This line or total has not moved from the opening numbers, but the Hornets project to be one of the lowest rated teams in the league without Ball on the floor.
*Detroit Pistons at Sacramento Kings (-9, 233.5)
It is the third game in four nights along the west coast for Detroit, and it gets the pleasure of taking on one of the hottest teams in the league. Sacramento is 5-1 SU/6-0 ATS in its last six games and leads the league in cover rate at 78.6% ATS. However, with success comes market adjustments and we’re starting to see just that with the Kings. Just three nights ago they closed as 7.5-point favorites against San Antonio and tonight they are laying 9.5 at most shops. The Pistons are very much short-handed, but the absences of Saddiq Bey, Cade Cunningham and Isaiah Stewart have been factored into this line.
Golden State Warriors (-10, 233) at Houston Rockets
The Warriors are looking to snap an 0-8 SU/1-7 ATS road losing streak tonight, and they get the benefit of facing one of the worst teams in the league in the Rockets. Houston has struggled immensely on offense this season, averaging a league-worst 106.9 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time minutes. The one thing they do well, which is score in transition, is actually the only thing Golden State has defended well this season. The Rockets come into this game fifth in transition offensive efficiency (134.1), but the Warriors allow the fifth fewest points per 100 plays in transition (112.7). Matchups aside, until Golden State shows some consistency in these spots, why lay so many points when a better in-game opportunity is sure to arise?
Memphis Grizzlies at Brooklyn Nets (-7.5, 222)
Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane are all out for Memphis, and Kyrie Irving is expected to make his return for Brooklyn. This is a perfect NBA game, with tons of line volatility due to missing players, but the market has settled in with the Nets laying 7.5 and I cannot disagree. Without Morant on the floor the Grizzlies have been outscored by 6.1 points per 100 possessions and that figure still includes possessions with Bane on the floor. In other words, it would seem this team is going to struggle on offense tonight, even against Brooklyn. On the other side, with Irving back on the floor the Nets’ middling offense can hopefully be maximized.