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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page
Market Report for Saturday, November 19th
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 15-23 | Units: -8.31 | ROI: -23.07%
None on this college football Saturday.
Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks (-5.5, 225)
Toronto’s injury report continues to grow, and they added another name to it after their win over Miami on Wednesday when Delano Banton went down with an ankle injury. That means five of their top eight leaders in minutes will all miss this game, as well as Banton. It does not seem to be an ideal situation for the Raptors, but the market seems to think this line accurately reflects the injury situation, as this line has not moved from the open. Atlanta has been wildly inconsistent recently, coming into this game 2-3 SU and ATS with a 121.2 defensive rating in the losses but a 96.6 in the wins. That sort of inconsistency would allow a well-coached team like Toronto, which went on a 21-0 run against the Heat the other night, to stay inside a number like this.
*Orlando Magic at *Indiana Pacers (-6.5, 230)
Indiana stormed back against Houston last night to maintain its perfect ATS run, and is now 9-0 ATS in its last nine games. Meanwhile, Orlando needed a Jalen Suggs 3-pointer with 4.1 seconds left to upset the Bulls in Chicago. Paolo Banchero is still sidelined with injury, and there has been little indication as to when his return would be, but as always, monitor the injury report with both teams coming in on no rest. If Orlando is going to spoil the party they will have to bottle up this Indiana offense which is 11th in non-garbage time offensive efficiency (114.7) and killing teams from beyond the arc (37.9%) and in transition. The Magic have held opponents to just 34.2% from beyond the arc this season, but their transition defense has been among some of the worst in the league at 1.24 points per play through transition allowed off live rebounds. The Pacers’ own defense has been below average as well, allowing 113.0 points per 100 possessions, but the Magic have been very inconsistent on that end without Banchero. Indiana is at a market high with its rating right now, but there are other teams I would rather take my shot against them with than Orlando.
Minnesota Timberwolves at *Philadelphia 76ers (PK, 222.5)
It’s the second leg of a back-to-back for Philadelphia which means there is a chance for Joel Embiid - after dropping 32 points, 11 rebounds and 8 assists in a win over Milwaukee - takes a night off tonight. This current number of Timberwolves -3.5 would suggest that Embiid will not play, but even if he does the 76ers are shorthanded. Tyrese Maxey is undergoing an MRI to see what the extent of his foot injury that he suffered yesterday is, and James Harden is still out. If Embiid is done too it would make sense to have such a number for Minnesota. The Timberwolves could be starting to find their way with this new group. They have only won and covered their last two games, but the team is coming off two of its best offensive performances of the season and Anthony Edwards, who has suffered the most in this new offense, is coming off a season-high 35-point performance. They should have enough to dispatch a short-handed 76ers team tonight.
*Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers (-4, 223)
My theory that the Utah Jazz are a terrible defensive team seems to have some weight to it, but when they shoot 51.6% from beyond the arc they can overcome a defensive performance in which they allowed 1.291 points per possessions like they did to Phoenix last night. After that poor showing the Jazz are now 24th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency, and it is likely why we’ve seen this total shoot up to 227.5 consensus. One has to wonder what this offense can do on no rest and heading up to Portland after that shooting performance last night, especially against a team that can rebound with them like the Trail Blazers can. The betting market believes in Utah to a certain extent, as this number is down to 3.5 consensus. I would say the time to play against the Jazz is now, but it might need to be a better opponent.
San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers (-8, 224.5)
Los Angeles is as healthy as it has ever been heading into this game with San Antonio, and while its offense needs to find a rhythm, its defense continues to put forth elite efforts. The Clippers are second in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (107.3), and they rank inside the top five of both opponent points added per 100 possessions through transition offense (+1.8) and halfcourt defense (91.8). It would seem that this matchup with the Spurs would be one in which the Clippers can suffocate an opponent which has dropped to 25th in offense (110.0). When these two met in San Antonio the Clippers closed -3.5 and covered in a win. Today, this number has been bet up to -9 consensus and the total dropped down to 221 at most shops. San Antonio did cover four of five before its loss to Sacramento on Thursday, but this seems like a poor matchup for them tonight.