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All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page.
Market Report for Friday, November 18th
*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back
**Lines are opening numbers
Record: 15-21 | Units: -6.31 | ROI: -18.54%
Oklahoma City Thunder at Memphis Grizzlies (-7.5, 232.5)
Memphis dropped both games of a quick two-game road trip, and they return home to host Oklahoma City tonight. The market loves and respects this Grizzlies team, but the results have not been there, as evidenced by their 5-8-2 ATS record on the season. Oklahoma City is going to be at a disadvantage when it comes to size tonight, as both Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson Jr. can punish the Thunder for their lack of frontcourt bodies. However, the Thunder have the advantage in the backcourt. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will be able to constantly work Ja Morant on defense, and Lu Dort is good enough defensively to hound Morant when he has the ball. Without Desmond Bane, it will be a challenge for the Grizzlies to find another offensive outlet to support Morant. The Thunder continue to deliver for bettors, as the team is now 10-5 ATS on the season. Hopefully that is 11-5 ATS by the end of the night.
Play: Thunder (+6.5)
Phoenix Suns (-1.5, 227) at Utah Jazz
Are the Utah Jazz starting to show their true colors? Utah is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games, and their defense has slipped to 19th in non-garbage time efficiency (113.0). The betting market has clearly made its adjustment on this team’s power rating, but it might be time to come in and start playing against these adjustments. At the beginning of the season Utah was catching 6.5 at home against Denver, and now is opening up +1.5 against what could be the highest rated team in the Western Conference. Phoenix is a good enough rebounding team to deal with the offensive rebounding of Utah, and their perimeter talent is much better than what the Jazz bring to the table. The market is moving this up in favor of the Suns and I agree with the move. It might be the start of the slide down the standings for the Jazz.
Play: Suns (-1.5)
Best Bet Recap
Miami Heat at Washington Wizards (-2, 217)
Miami is now 3-10-1 ATS on the season after their loss to Toronto on Wednesday. The team will try to snap the skid tonight, but Bam Adebayo, Dewayne Dedmon and Caleb Martin are all questionable to play and Tyler Herro has already been ruled out. Despite those injury concerns the market is heading in the Heat’s direction, but clarity on the injury situation should be a priority for any preflop bettor here. Washington lost to Oklahoma City last time out, but the team is 5-3 SU/6-2 ATS in its last eight games with Bradley Beal back on the floor.
Charlotte Hornets at Cleveland Cavaliers (-9, 221)
Cleveland is 0-5 SU and ATS in its last five games with a league-worst 122.0 defensive rating over that stretch. Jarrett Allen has been upgraded to questionable for the Cavaliers, so his presence will help improve this team’s defensive efforts, but remember that he only missed the last two games and is by no means a cure all for this team’s woes. Still, they get the Hornets tonight who lost LaMelo Ball to an injury to the ankle that kept him from making his season debut until last week, and the team is 1-9 SU/2-8 ATS with a -11.1 net rating in its last 10 games. There has not been much movement this morning, but do not expect a rush of support for Charlotte tonight.
Milwaukee Bucks at Philadelphia 76ers (-2.5, 219)
Jrue Holiday has not played since Nov. 7 against Atlanta, and he is questionable once more tonight for Milwaukee. The Bucks are just 2-2 SU and ATS in the games Holiday has missed, as the team is extremely thin without Holiday on the floor. He did practice Tuesday, so it does seem that he is close to a return. If he does play it would not be a surprise to see this line close PK or Bucks -1 considering the market is already down to -1.5 without any official news concerning Holiday’s status. Philadelphia has won and covered three of four, but they lack a true defensive option for Giannis Antetokounmpo. Their offense has also struggled since losing Harden to injury, putting up just 106.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. This is likely why we have seen this total plummet to 216.5 at most shops.
Indiana Pacers (-2.5, 236) at Houston Rockets
Indiana heads to Houston on a 6-2 SU/8-0 ATS run. The Pacers have outscored opponents by 5.6 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the course of these eight games, and they have the sixth best offensive rating in the league (117.1). It would track that Indiana is set to roll Houston tonight, but the market is really starting to blow this team’s rating up. Two days ago the Pacers were 2.5-point underdogs to a similarly rated Hornets team, and as of this morning they are up to -5.5 for this game against the Rockets at some shops, the same number the Clippers were laying four days ago! Kevin Porter Jr. is questionable for Houston, but this seems like quite the adjustment for Indiana’s power rating.
Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls (-9, 223)
Paolo Bancher has missed the last four games for Orlando, and he is out once again tonight against Chicago. The Magic are dying for his help on offense. Over the last two games they have been held to 1.084 points per possession in non-garbage time, and they have turned it over on 19.4% of their offensive possessions. Until Banchero returns to give them one more ball-handler it's hard to look in their direction. The betting market has not moved this number much, but it is down to 8.5 in some spots with the total down to 222 at a few shops.
Denver Nuggets at Dallas Mavericks (-6.5, 215)
Dallas is now 0-9-1 ATS in its last 10 games, but it does seem that the opportunity to break that slump is tonight against Denver. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are in health and safety protocol, and Aaron Gordon is questionable to play. Having said that, this number is now -8.5 consensus which is very high for a team that has clearly been overvalued by the betting market. The Mavericks’ bench has not been able to score without Luka Doncic on the floor, and that is a factor that will keep most opponents inside a lot of these inflated numbers.
Boston Celtics (-2.5, 227) at New Orleans Pelicans
These two teams head into this game on some solid runs. New Orleans is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five with three straight wins and covers, and Boston is 8-0 SU/5-3 ATS in its last eight. There are some injury concerns that most bettors should want some clarity on before getting involved though. Marcus Smart and Zion Williamson are both questionable to play, and of the two Williamson’s status has the most impact on the line. Should he be available this number will get much closer to PK and if he is ruled out it would obviously close somewhat higher than the 2.5 that is on the board right now. Either way, it is an interesting test for the Pelicans’ defense. The Celtics refuse to slow down their scoring pace, coming into this game averaging a league best 120.1 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. New Orleans does rank sixth in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (110.7), but some good offensive teams have gouged them at time this season. The side has not moved yet, but this total is up to 230 because neither team seems to have a real option to stymie what the other wants to do on offense.
*Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers (-7, 225)
The Pistons were suffocated by the Clippers defense in the second half last night, and until Cade Cunningham returns from his shin injury this team is going to struggle to score. The team also lost Isaiah Stewart to injury for up to two weeks, but their lack of bodies isn’t showing in the results, as they have covered their last two games against Toronto and Los Angeles. They get to face the Lakers tonight who come in on four days of rest, not having played since the win over Brooklyn on Sunday. The time off has allowed for the team to avoid playing without LeBron James who is questionable tonight with that groin injury suffered a week ago against the Clippers. Until there is clarity on James’ status bettors can expect this number to just sit on the opening side and total for most of the day.