NBA Best Bets Today: Odds, predictions and picks for Friday, January 27th

By Jonathan Von Tobel  (Senior NBA Analyst) 

January 27, 2023 10:32 AM

Welcome to the daily NBA best bets page, your source for analysis on the betting lines for the day in professional hoops. For updates throughout the day follow me on Twitter, and make sure to subscribe to the Hardwood Handicappers podcast!

All game lines via the VSiN NBA odds page

Stay up to date on injury news with our injury report page as well.

*Indicates team is on the second leg of a back-to-back

**Lines are opening numbers

Best Bets

Record: 43-49 | Units: -8.10 | ROI: -9.09%

NBA Odds & Games

Milwaukee Bucks (-8, 237.5) at Indiana Pacers

The injury report is crowded on both sides for this contest. Tyrese Haliburton remains out for Indiana, and multiple players are considered questionable. Among them are Myles Turner, Andrew Nembhard and Aaron Nesmith. All three of them are key role players for the Pacers and will have a massive impact on this line should they miss this contest. For Milwaukee, Bobby Portis is out for the foreseeable future with a knee injury and Giannis Antetokounmpo is probable with knee soreness. Bettors might believe that the probable tag means Antetokounmpo is guaranteed to play but that is not the case, as the last time these two teams met he was probable as well and ended up missing the game. With all of this noise surrounding player availability it should be easy to cross this game off.

Memphis Grizzlies (-3, 237.5) at Minnesota Timberwolves

This would be a great time to buy low on Memphis, even with the injury of Steven Adams, but Desmond Bane is questionable to play and that puts a wrench in that plan. Bane improves the Grizzlies’ net rating by 4.8 points per 100 possessions on the floor, and is the best shooter on an inconsistent shooting team. If he cannot play then this is not a play worth making. Memphis is 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games, and on the road the team is 11-14 SU/9-14-2 ATS this season. Rudy Gobert is questionable with injury, but he has regularly been on the report with injury but still played. He can largely be ignored on these reports. If Bane doesn’t play he should be worth about a point or more.



Orlando Magic at Miami Heat (-7.5, 221)

The betting market seems to be pretty high on Miami, and that has led to some inconsistent ATS results recently. For example, the Heat are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games, but 7-6 ATS which is right at break even at -110 odds. The market is moving in Miami’s direction once again today, as we are up to -8 consensus despite the recent run from Orlando. The Magic are only 6-5 SU in the month of January, but 8-3 ATS with a -0.4 net rating in non-garbage time. This team is also the healthiest it has been and they are better with the return of Jonathan Isaac. In the short sample size with Isaac on the floor the Magic are +19.7 and Isaac himself has put up 15 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in his 18 minutes of play. His presence is not worth impacting the power rating of this team, but it should be accounted for moving forward.

*Cleveland Cavaliers (-1, 226) at Oklahoma City Thunder

The injury report is key for Cleveland which is coming into this game with no rest. Kevin Love and Donovan Mitchell did not play in Houston and will likely miss this game as well. It is imperative to know who else, if anyone, will miss time on this back-to-back. If the Cavaliers are at relative full strength, this is a buy low number. Jarrett Allen’s size will be a problem for a small Oklahoma City team that has no true presence at center. The Thunder are also short-handed tonight, as Lu Dort will miss the game with a hamstring injury. With no Dort and a lack of size this should be Cleveland as a small road favorite, but the injury report will go a long way in deciding the closing number.

Toronto Raptors at Golden State Warriors (-5.5, 237.5)

Golden State’s once dominant homecourt advantage has taken a bit of a hit. The Warriors are on a 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS slide in San Francisco after a tight win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. The problem has been a defense which has regressed to average, allowing 117.2 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time over the last seven home games. That poor defensive play, combined with a strong rating at home, has led to this slump that Golden State finds itself in. If that poor defensive play is going to continue then the Warriors are in for a tough night against a Raptors team which has suddenly found its offense. Over the last seven games Toronto has averaged 121.5 points per 100 possessions, and the team is the healthiest its been with only Delano Banton listed on the injury report tonight.

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