Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest Sharp Report

chestnut

Happy 4th of July! For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben Wilson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for today's top Independence Day betting event...

 

2022 Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest

This year's Hot Dog Eating Contest takes place outdoors on the iconic boardwalk of Coney Island in Brooklyn, New York. Nathan's expects roughly 35,000 fans to watch the contest in person, the most in several years after COVID-19 forced the 2020 competition indoors and the 2021 event featured limited capacity oudoors.

The women's competition kicks off at 10:45 a.m ET and the men's event starts at 12 p.m. ET. Once again, contestants will be competing to see who can eat the most hot dogs and buns (HDBs) in ten minutes. 

 

Men's Competition

Joey "Jaws" Chestnut, the world's top rated competitive eater, enters as a hefty -3000 favorite to win the contest at BetMGM. This translates to a 97% implied probability. The field is +1000. Chestnut, 38, has won the Mustard Belt six straight times and 14 out of the last 15 years. 

Chestnut is such a massive favorite that it makes little sense to lay the huge minus number. Simply put, the line is so high that the juice isn't really worth the squeeze. Since Chestnut is largely competing against himself, bettors looking to get in on the action are likely to focus on Chestnut's over/under hot dogs. The total opened at 74.5 hot dogs with the over juiced to -135. We've seen the over 74.5 juice rise from -135 to -140, signaling some respected money and liability on the over.

Chestnut set the world record with 76 hot dogs and buns in 2021 and has eaten 70 or more dogs in six straight years. Amazingly, Chestnut has only gotten better with time. Here are his results dating back from 2007 to 2021: 66, 59, 68, 54, 62, 68, 69, 61, 60, 70. 72, 74, 71, 75, 76. One variable to consider this year: Chestnut broke his leg earlier this year and will be wearing a cast during the competition. 

Chestnut appeared on VSiN's Follow the Money last week and noted that he was touching 80 hot dogs in his practice rounds. At DraftKings, Chestnut is +185 to set a new world record (76 dogs or more). The "no" is -245. 

Here are several other over/unders that bettors can get down on

Geoffrey Esper: 52.5 (over -125, under -105)

Gideon Oji: 41.5 (under -130, over +100)

Nick Wehry: 48.5 (under -140, over +110)

DraftKings is also offering a prop on who will come in second after Chestnut. Esper is -250, followed by Wehry (+275), Oji and Webb (+1200) and other (+800). 

Esper, ranked second in the world, was the runner up to Chestnut last year. He wolfed down 51 dogs. 

 

Women's Competition

While Chesnut is the GOAT on the men's side, Miki Sudo is the one to beat on the women's side. Sudo enters as a -5000 favorite (98% implied probability) with the field set at +1100. 

Sudo, 36, has won seven straight contests that she's competed in. Sudo missed last year's contest due to her pregnancy. 

The last time Sudo competed she set the women's world record with 48.5 dogs eaten. Here are her results dating back from 2014 to 2020: 34, 38, 38.5, 41, 37, 31, 48.5. 

We've seen some massive movement to Sudo's under. Her total opened at 49.5 with the under juiced to -165. It has been steamed down from 49.5 to 43.5. With the line dropping so drastically, much of the value to Sudo's under is now gone. At the current number, there could be some buy-low value to the over. It now sits at 43.5 with the over juiced to -165 and the under +120.

With Sudo out last year, Michelle Lesco won the competition with 30.75 hot dogs eaten. Her over/under is set at 29.5 with the under -150 and the over +120.

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