NASCAR simulations yield strong betting results

Back in April, I reviewed the early NASCAR season nine-race results against my race simulations and was thrilled about the results. I was not surprised, mind you, as I was having good success with my wagering, but I’m not sure I even realized the improvements my projections were showing over the prior season. At the time, I theorized that having a full season of Next Gen car stats under our belt would naturally positively affect the simulations. That theory has proved to be accurate, and the positive results have continued over the last 12 races.

That leads me to an update on the 2023 season so far, and I can proudly proclaim that this has been the best season I’ve enjoyed in NASCAR betting using my simulations in recent memory. The results on To Win, Top 3s, Top 5s, and matchups have all been solid so far. I’m here to share some of those results with you and get you excited for betting the rest of the season, starting with a typically highly predictable Cook Out 400 race at Richmond on Sunday.

The first thing I want to share with you that is compared to last year, using what I call my “handicap stats,” which only take into account driver stats when they finish 95% or more of the laps in a race, the projections by Driver Rating are about 16.7% better than usual, while the projections by Average Simulation Finish position are 13.5% improved. I’m not sure about you, but improving my own betting results by percentages like this can often make the difference in winning and losing. Here is the average margin between my projection and the actual finish for all drivers in all nine races.

1. OVERALL SIMULATION PROJECTION vs. ACTUAL DRIVER RATING: 5.37 positions (usually around 6.45)
2. OVERALL SIMULATION PROJECTION vs. ACTUAL FINISH POSITION: 7.78 positions (usually around 9.0)

The other thing that I must mention at this point is that my Final Simulations (released on Saturdays usually) have been more effective than the initial simulations I put out on Tuesday. The averaging variances on the two stats listed above for the initial simulations were 6.53 and 8.43. These represent improvements of about 17.8% and 7.7% respectively for the two measures, meaning I would certainly recommend waiting until the final simulations are released if you’re betting races using them as a foundation.

Here are some of the other key stats from my Final Simulations so far in 2023. As you analyze these numbers, consider that NASCAR races have at least 36 different drivers in each race.

-  Final Simulations have accurately pegged five outright winners, including Christopher Bell (+650) at Bristol, Tyler Reddick (+1000) at COTA, William Byron (+850 at Darlington, Ross Chastain (+450) at Nashville, and Martin Truex (+350) at New Hampshire. Simply betting my projected winner has thus produced a profit of 17 units thus far (+33 on winners minus 16 on losers)!

-  Essentially, with 15 races left, and the simulations already +17 units on winners, we have clinched a season-long profit. Anything else from here is gravy. The other noteworthy thing is that the five winners pegged so far are five different drivers, demonstrating that the simulations are not picking the same driver each week and hoping that guy comes in.

-  Only three of the 21 race winners thus far were projected outside the Top 7 on my simulations, Ricky Stenhouse (19^th at Daytona) and Kyle Busch (13^th at Fontana & 20^th at Talladega). Ironically, two of those were the first two races of the year, and the other was at the wild Talladega track.

-  Besides the five race winners pegged accurately, another four were projected second on my simulation. If you were to add those winners to the profit margins, you’d have +25 units in wins against -17 units in losses, or another +8 units on top of the +17 we already had, so +25 units in betting both the first and second-place projected finishers to win.

-  In the first update of results this season, of the actual 27 Top 3 finishers this season, my final simulations had pegged eight of them accurately, and five more were predicted in the Top 5. Since then, of the 36 additional Top 3 finishers, 12 of them were pegged accurately, and another eight were predicted in the Top 5. Obviously, this represents a bit of an uptick in our successes.

-  Of the actual 105 Top 5 finishers this season, my final simulations pegged 43 of them correctly, a bump of about 1% since the April update. Furthermore, only ten of the Top 5 finishers were projected outside of my Top 16 in races, and three of those came at the rain-shortened Atlanta race a few weeks ago.

Simulation Projection Results by Driver

Naturally, different drivers will have different predictability levels based on their overall consistency at certain tracks. In looking at the full-time drivers that my simulations have projected most closely in this season’s first nine races, they are:

Rank. Driver: Average Margin

1. Noah Gragson: 4.08
2. Martin Truex: 5.45
3. Chase Briscoe: 5.89
4. Chase Elliott: 6.17
5. Alex Bowman: 6.18
6. Darrell Wallace: 6.26
7. Kyle Busch: 6.28
8. Chris Buescher: 6.55
9. William Byron: 6.55
10. Brad Keselowski: 6.6

Important to note here that I only use the 95% laps completed number in deriving these figures. In my opinion, this removes a lot of fluke circumstances that can affect NASCAR stats offered elsewhere. In general, the more fluke stuff I can eliminate from handicapping, the more successful I am.

Looking at the opposite side of the coin, these are the drivers that have proven most difficult to project my simulation in 2023, first by finish position. These are drivers that have either been wildly inconsistent or are out- or under-performing early expectations thus far:

Rank. Driver: Average Margin

1. Tyler Reddick: 11.5
2. JJ Yeley: 11.31
3. Todd Gilliland: 11.15
4. Daniel Suarez: 10.76
5. Justin Haley: 9.48
6. Ricky Stenhouse: 9.15
7. Ryan Preece: 9.12
8. Ryan Blaney: 8.85
9. Erik Jones: 8.68
10. Corey LaJoie: 8.5

Driver Variations from the Norm

One of the key handicapping principles that I have always embraced in betting NASCAR is in finding drivers that are supposed to do better or worse than usual at any given race. For instance, when my final simulations typically project a driver around 15^th in any given race, but they are suddenly pegged 10^th in a certain event, I believe that driver has betting value.

So far in 2023, there have been 169 instances that didn’t involve trouble in a race in which my final simulations projected a driver at least 3.0 positions higher than his average. Of those 169 instances, 103 (60.9%) of the projected drivers finished better than their season-average finish position.

Alternatively, when my final simulations projected a driver to finish at least three spots worse than their usual final simulation projection, 97 of the 176 (55.1%) such occurrences resulted in that driver finishing worse than his usual finish position.

Using this powerful information for handicapping purposes, these are the average final simulation projections and average finishes for the 2023 season thus far using my handicapped races (95% or better laps). Consider these going forward to spot drivers expected to do better or worse than usual.

Driver - AvgFinSimProj / AvgFinPos

• Anthony Alfredo: 34.5 / 34
• AJ Allmendinger: 22.3 / 16.5
• Aric Almirola: 20.5 / 20.4
• Christopher Bell: 8.4 / 11.8
• Josh Berry: 20.4 / 18.9
• Josh Bilicki: 36.4 / 29.2
• Ryan Blaney: 7.7 / 14.8
• Alex Bowman: 12.8 / 14
• Chase Briscoe: 19.7 / 18.3
• Chris Buescher: 16.7 / 13.1
• Harrison Burton: 28 / 22
• Kyle Busch: 10 / 9.3
• Jenson Button: 28.5 / 19.5
• William Byron: 5.9 / 11.2
• Ross Chastain: 10.1 / 14
• Austin Cindric: 18.4 / 20.6
• Cole Custer: 32.5 / 28.5
• Conor Daly: 36 / 29
• Austin Dillon: 23.2 / 16.9
• Ty Dillon: 33.8 / 26.1
• Chase Elliott: 10.5 / 7.7
• Grant Enfinger: 30 / 26
• Gray Gaulding: 35 / 29
• Ty Gibbs: 18.1 / 17.1
• Todd Gilliland: 29.9 / 19.8
• Noah Gragson: 28 / 25.2
• Justin Haley: 27 / 18.8
• Denny Hamlin: 5.4 / 10.3
• Kevin Harvick: 10.5 / 12.7
• Riley Herbst: 36.5 / 17.5
• Austin Hill: 35 / 23
• Jimmie Johnson: 20 / 31
• Erik Jones: 23.6 / 17.8
• Brad Keselowski: 14.6 / 13.9
• Corey LaJoie: 27.6 / 20
• Andy Lally: 35.5 / 30.5
• Kyle Larson: 3.7 / 9.3
• Joey Logano: 6.5 / 11.1
• Michael McDowell: 20.8 / 17.6
• BJ McLeod: 36.1 / 27.2
• Ryan Newman: 33.5 / 29
• Travis Pastrana: 38 / 11
• Brennan Poole: 34.5 / 30.5
• Ryan Preece: 25.9 / 20.1
• Kimi Raikkonen: 32 / 29
• Tyler Reddick: 9.3 / 13.7
• Chandler Smith: 33 / 17
• Zane Smith: 31.8 / 24.4
• Ricky Stenhouse: 21.8 / 14.7
• Daniel Suarez: 15.4 / 15.8
• Jordan Taylor: 11 / 24
• Martin Truex: 9.2 / 11
• Shane van Gisbergen: 6 / 1
• Darrell Wallace: 17.8 / 15.7
• Cody Ware: 35.6 / 27.7
• JJ Yeley: 34.5 / 23.2

Simulation Accuracy Order by Race

This is a list of the 20 tracks visited so far in order of Simulation Projection vs. Actual Finish Position accuracy. Obviously, this is a small sample, but it can give bettors a good idea of which tracks have proven to be more statistically predictable when looking ahead at the rest of the ’23 schedule:

1. Las Vegas: 5.44
2. Phoenix: 5.89
3. Martinsville: 6.17
4. Nashville: 6.33
5. Sonoma: 6.5
6. Kansas: 7.22
7. Richmond: 7.41
8. New Hampshire: 7.61
9. Dover: 7.67
10. Gateway: 7.89
11. Pocono: 8.94
12. Circuit of the Americas: 9.18
13. Darlington: 9.28
14. California: 9.83
15. Chicago Street: 10.11
16. Atlanta: 10.2
17. Charlotte: 10.22
18. Bristol Dirt: 10.49
19. Daytona: 11.25
20. Talladega: 11.58

It should be noted that #1 is a cookie-cutter 1.5-mile track, and #’s 2-4 are short tracks. The rest vary greatly from the first four in size, surface, and car setup. Of course, the most unpredictable tracks, as usual, have been Daytona & Talladega.

Looking ahead to Sunday’s Cook Out 400 at Richmond

As I indicated earlier, short tracks are usually more statistically predictable than other venues, and the first Richmond race, run back in April, checks in at #7 of the 20 tracks visited thus far in terms of predictability using my simulation.

Kyle Larson won that race at Richmond in April and also finished atop the driver ratings. He was projected second for the day on my simulation. Josh Berry, subbing for Chase Elliott, came in a surprising second, while Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, and Kevin Harvick rounded out the top 5.

Who are the statistical leaders at Richmond?

These are the leaders from my weekly simulation factors in some categories I deem to be key in analyzing race data:

Steve’s Track Handicap Ratings

1. Kevin Harvick – 110.9
2. Kyle Larson – 106.8
3. Martin Truex – 106.7
4. Denny Hamlin – 106.5
5. William Byron – 104.6

Steve’s Track Designation Handicap Ratings

1. Kyle Larson – 116.8
2. Martin Truex – 113
3. Denny Hamlin – 104.4
4. Kevin Harvick – 100
5. Chase Briscoe – 94.3

In looking at the leaders above, one thing stands out right away. Four of the five drivers are the same on the exclusive lists.

Steve’s last 10 Overall Ratings (Momentum)

1. Martin Truex – 114.1
2. Denny Hamlin – 107.4
3. William Byron – 105.6
4. Kyle Larson – 96.5
5. Ryan Blaney – 92.3

In starting your handicapping, recognize that the top 4 on the momentum list are also on the track lists. It would seem that the Cook Out 400 at Richmond figures to be a race in which the rich get richer.

Drivers projected higher on the Final Simulation than average simulation

1. Darrell Wallace: 8 /17.8 (9.8)
2. Martin Truex: 2 /9.2 (7.2)
3. Chase Elliott: 4 /10.5 (6.5)
4. Ryan Preece: 20 /25.9 (5.9)
5. Aric Almirola: 15 /20.5 (5.5)
6. William Byron: 1 /5.9 (4.9)
7. Kevin Harvick: 6 /10.5 (4.5)
8. Ty Gibbs: 14 /18.1 (4.1)
9. Todd Gilliland: 26 /29.9 (3.9)
10. Chris Buescher: 13 /16.7 (3.7)

Drivers projected lower on the Final Simulation than average simulation

1. Austin Cindric: 31 /18.4 (-12.6)
2. AJ Allmendinger: 32 /22.3 (-9.7)
3. Ryan Blaney: 16 /7.7 (-8.3)
4. Daniel Suarez: 22 /15.4 (-6.6)
5. Alex Bowman: 18 /12.8 (-5.2)
6. Christopher Bell: 12 /8.4 (-3.6)
7. Joey Logano: 10 /6.5 (-3.5)
8. Justin Haley: 30 /27 (-3)

For those of you insistent on me making some of my top picks for Sunday, with qualifying and practice results included, here are some of my top predictions:

Top 5: Byron, Truex, Larson, Hamlin, Wallace

Top longshots: Wallace, Buescher, Gibbs, Keselowski

Favorites to struggle: Chastain, Bell, Blaney

The full final simulation is loaded up on VSiN.com right now. For those of you that have a Sirius XM subscription, you can catch me previewing the race from a betting perspective on the NASCAR Fantasy Preview Show with Pete Pistone on Sunday at 1:30 PM ET.

Good luck with your Richmond wagers.