My best value bets for UFC 257


Publishing this week has been a pleasure because I have been able to submit and discuss on air facets of each fight after the most important event leading to the fights — the weigh-ins. Viewing weigh-ins is as foundational for success in betting the UFC as obtaining opening-line value. The information gathered during fighter weigh-ins is not only revealing for the immediate set of fights but proves valuable for future reference.

UFC 257 weigh-ins were held at 3 a.m. Pacific Time on Friday. Based on the information gathered, let’s break it down.

Conor McGregor vs. Dustin Poirier needs little introduction thanks to McGregor’s popularity and reputation. This card has 11 scheduled bouts, each with compelling storylines featuring fighters who finish bouts. Whether it’s via destructive striking or stranglehold, these fighters are here to finish the opponent.

Here are the bouts I have selected as my top releases. Fight breakdowns will be brief yet direct. Last cuts will be listed for readers’ consideration too.

Note: This slate lost two fights Friday morning, and both involved official releases. Here are my remaining best bets. All lives via Circa Sports.


Lightweight (155 pounds), Main Event

This is a rematch of a 2014 featherweight bout in which both men were physical and mental shells of the fighters they are today.

McGregor needs little introduction. He possesses an innate fluidity of offensive and defensive movement, precision placement of vicious leg and arm strikes coupled with natural athleticism and, let’s not forget, an abundance of confidence. McGregor is a master at goading opponents into rage and irrational octagon behavior as Poirier himself experienced in that first bout.

It’s believed that McGregor is at his best early but has issues with conditioning after a round or two, as we saw in both losses to Khabib Nurmagomedov and Nate Diaz. The Poirier plan absolutely revolves around taking McGregor deep to make him battle fatigue in addition to Poirier. 

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