My best bets for UFC 264: Poirier-McGregor 3

By Reed Kuhn  ( 


(To view the charts accompanying this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly)

It’s another McGregor mega-card in Las Vegas, and Saturday night will feel like a true pre-pandemic UFC weekend. And despite no titles being on the line, three main card matchups at UFC 264 will have clear title implications.

Lightweights: Dustin Poirier -120 vs Conor McGregor + 100

Simply put, has McGregor done enough since their last fight to beat Poirier at his apparent career peak? We have two of the most accurate power strikers in the game, with a combined 25 knockdowns scored between them. There’s tons of offensive potential in one cage, and not much difference in defensive statistics.

However, Poirier proved that taking the fight directly to McGregor can stifle some of the Irishman’s aggression and fight control. It also seemed Poirier’s striking had evolved better than McGregor’s, with a finish between the two an inevitability the way they last fought. Yet we didn’t see much of a ground game, where Poirier should have an even more pronounced advantage.

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