I’m nothing if not consistent with picks every week, even if those picks are going 1-2 consistently.
It was another 1-2 performance last week thanks to Leicester losing to hot Southampton and Arsenal-Palace scoring just twice. Let’s not dwell on the past and instead see if we can make some money for Matchweek 23.
Liverpool GL (-1.5) vs. Manchester United
Whatever is the opposite of “fool me once …,” that’s what Liverpool has been this season. We backed them last week on the road against Spurs, and we’re backing them again this week at home against a depleted United.
Some may be scared off by the goal line here, as Liverpool needs to win by two goals or more. But history backs this up as the right play, and you’re getting + 110 right now at the South Point to do it.
Liverpool has won all 11 games at Anfield this season, and seven have been by more two or more goals. Across its last 30 at home, Jurgen Klopp’s squad has won by two goals or more 20 times.
United has success against Liverpool almost exclusively on its home turf and could be without Paul Pogba and Marcus Rashford. And while Liverpool has been far and away the best Premier League team at home, United has garnered a measly 1.09 points/game on the road.
Liverpool hasn’t conceded a goal since Dec. 4, and United has failed to score in three of its last five road contests. This game has all the makings of a 2-0 or 3-1 finish, as Liverpool isn’t one to blow out teams and is simply better than the Red Devils.
One last trend to note: If you can get it, I like Liverpool -0.5 goal on the 1H spread. Only once this season has Liverpool gone into the break behind, and the Reds have scored at least one first-half goal in all but one fixture this season.
Leicester GL (-0.5) @ Burnley
If you looked up “get-right spot” in the dictionary today, Leicester-Burnley would appear under the definition.
Leicester has lost three of its last five but carries a two-game road winning streak into Turf Moor. Burnley has lost three of its last five at home and is 1-1-3 straight up against the Foxes in their last five meetings. Extrapolate that to the last 17 meetings, and Burnley carries an unimpressive 3-4-10 record against Leicester into this meeting.
Plus, in all seven of its road wins this campaign, Leicester has scored at least two goals every time, and Burnley simply doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up with Jamie Vardy and company.
If Leicester can score twice, it’s an all-but-guaranteed victory. Even if Burnley wanted to play a defense-oriented game, Leicester is too explosive not to get at least one goal — the Foxes have done it in 91% of away matches — and transition to a more defensive style and try to keep a clean sheet.
Right now at the South Point, Leicester is -120 to lay a half-goal, a good price considering you’re getting third-place Leicester against 15th-place Burnley.
Norwich City/Bournemouth Under 3.5 Goals
It’s the riveting matchup you’ve all been waiting for — last-place Norwich at home against second-to-last Bournemouth.
While it’s no Liverpool-Manchester City, I still see an edge in the total. It’s sitting at 3.5 at the South Point as of this writing, and the Under gets you plus money at + 105.
It’s been a while since I’ve used this system, but there’s value on the Under in matches featuring two bottom-four teams. Last season that system cashed on a three-goal total 72% of the time, and while we’re 1-1-0 this season betting that system, you’re still hovering around that same percentage.
That system is based on a three-goal total. With this fixture, you get the hook, and that extra half-goal could prove to be the difference. Not only are these teams evenly matched, both have relatively solid goal differentials in these games. Norwich has a -8 goal differential at home, and Bournemouth has a -8 goal differential on the road. Translation: These teams get blown out very infrequently.
Under 3.5 goals has cashed at a 59% rate in Norwich matches this season, while that number comes in at a 68% rate for Bournemouth. Additionally, both teams have cashed the Under in four of their last five head-to-head matches. In all six EPL meetings between the two, the total has gone past 3.5 only once.