Monday Sharp Report for Thunder-Suns, Nuggets-Lakers and Nats-Mets

August 9, 2020 11:28 PM

After two straight days of NBA dog domination (8-3 ATS), favorites bounced back to go 4-3 ATS on Sunday. The biggest story of the day, however, was the Nets upsetting the Clippers 129-120. Brooklyn opened at + 14 and fell all the way to + 9.5 behind a combination of early smart money and Paul George resting. The Nets cashed + 340 on the moneyline. 

One game in particular that wiseguys kept their eye on involved the 76ers and Blazers. The line opened at Blazers -2, ticked up to -3.5, fell to -1.5 and closed at -2.5. Portland won 124-121. Most bettors who laid the points ended up covering. However, sharps who were savvy enough to wait for the inflated line and pounce on the + 3.5 were able to cover with Philadelphia. This is a perfect microcosm of how sharps win bets that most casual bettors do not. First, they have access to multiple books so they can shop for the best line. But most importantly, they can read and anticipate line movement and see how the juice is moving in order to pick off numbers at their most valuable point. 

Overs had another great day on Sunday, going 5-2. Overs are now 34-26-1- (56.7%) in the bubble. When the total is 230 or less, the over is 27-15-1 (64.3%). When the total is 230 or higher, the over is 8-11 (42.1%). 

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET.  I'll also be joining the Lombardi Line at 12:25 pm ET to offer a market update. 

2:30 pm ET: Oklahoma City Thunder (43-26) vs. Phoenix Suns (31-39)

The Suns were invited to Orlando as a goodwill gesture and afterthought. And they've quickly become the hottest team in the NBA. Phoenix is ​​5-0 in the bubble, the only undefeated team since the restart. The Suns are playing with house money but need to keep winning in order to keep their postseason hopes alive. Phoenix trails Memphis by 1.5 games with 3-games to play for the final playoff spot out West. Meanwhile, Oklahoma City sits in the 5th playoff spot, a half-game up on 6-seed Utah. This line opened with Phoenix listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Pro money has rushed to the window to lay the points with the red-hot Suns, which has pushed Phoenix up to -5. One big advantage for the Suns here: Oklahoma City is on the second leg of a back-to-back while the Suns enjoy a day of rest. The total has dipped slightly from 225 to 224. 

7:10 pm ET: Washington Nationals (4-7) at New York Mets (7-9)

The defending champion Nats can't gain any traction this season. After a slow start, their schedule was postponed due to virus precautions. In four games back since they returned to play, Washington is 1-3 and has dropped three straight. The Mets, on the other hand, just took two of three from the surprisingly tough Marlins. In this NL East series opener, Washington proudly out lefty Patrick Corbin (1-0, 3.00 ERA) against fellow southpaw Steven Matz (0-2, 5.65 ERA). This line opened with the Nats listed as short -110 road favorites and the Mets an even money + 100 dog. Sensing a starting pitching advantage, pros immediately got down on the Nats, which has pushed Washington up to -120. Road favorites are 61.5% this season. The total is 8.5 with some under liability (-115). Unders are 57% this season.

9 pm ET: Denver Nuggets (46-24) vs. Los Angeles Lakers (51-18)

This late-night showdown between two Western Conference juggernauts will end up being the most heavily bet game of the night. The Nuggets are 3-2 in the bubble and just came off an impressive 134-132 double overtime win over Utah as a 1-point dog. Denver owns the 3-seed in the West and sits 1.5-games behind the 2-seed Clippers and 1.5-games ahead of the 4-seed Rockets. The Lakers, on the other hand, have struggled mightily in the bubble. Los Angeles is 2-4 since the restart and has lost three straight, most recently falling to Indiana 116-111 as 5.5-point favorites. Still, Los Angeles does not have much to play for as they've already clinched the 1-seed in the West. This line opened with the Lakers listed as 4.5-point favorites. We've seen a steady diet of respected money buy low on Los Angeles, pushing this line up to Lakers -5.5. The total has risen slightly from 221 to 221.5. These teams have met three times this season, with the Lakers winning 105-96, 120-16 and the Nuggets winning 128-104.

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states

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