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Monday Sharp Report (3-8)

March 8, 2021 01:00 AM

Today, a new week begins with a relatively quiet betting slate filled with 10-plus college basketball games and 6 NHL games. The NBA remains on hiatus for the All-Star break until Wednesday. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's discuss where money is flowing for a trio of matchups tonight...

6:30 p.m. ET: Milwaukee vs Cleveland State

This Horizon League conference tournament semifinal matchup features a pair of teams coming off overtime victories in the quarterfinal. Milwaukee (10-11) shocked Wright State 94-92, winning outright as 13-point dogs. On the flip side, Cleveland State (17-7) edged IPFW 108-104 in triple overtime, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point favorites. This game opened with Cleveland State listed as a short 3-point favorite. We've seen respected money lay the points with Cleveland State, pushing the line up from -3 to -3.5. Some shops are even inching toward -4. Essentially all liability has been on the side of the Vikings in this one. Ken Pom has Cleveland State winning by six points, which provides actionable value on the favorite at the current number. Ken Pom also has Cleveland State ranked much higher (156th vs 205th). These teams met for a pair of games in late January. Cleveland State won the first one 64-53 and lost the second one in overtime 81-80. The total is 140.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with Cleveland State 13-11 and Milwaukee 15-6.

9 p.m. ET: St. Louis Blues at San Jose Sharks

Both of these West Division foes are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Blues (14-8-3) just fell to the Kings 4-3, losing straight up as -150 road favorites. The loss snapped a four-game winning streak for St. Louis. Meanwhile, the Sharks (8-11-3) have struggled mightily as of late, dropping three straight and five of their last six. This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -150 road favorite. Respected money has laid the chalk price, pushing the Blues from -150 to --160. St. Louis matches several profitable betting systems this year, including a road favorite with a line move in their favor (56-27, 68%) and a favorite -150 or more with a high total of 6 or more (44-19, 70%). Also, favorites off a loss are 98-41 (71%) and when both teams are coming off a loss the favorite is 31-7 (82%). The Blues are + 2 in goal differential this season. The Sharks are -23. The Blues are 10-2-1 on the road. The Sharks are just 2-5-1 at home.

10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Kings at Anaheim Ducks

This West Division showdown features two teams trending in opposite directions.  Los Angeles (10-8-5) is 6-2-2 in their last ten games and just upset the Blues 4-3, cashing as + 130 dogs. The the flip side, the Ducks (7-12-6) are just 1-6-3 over their las ten games. They finally snapped a nine-game losing skid their last time out, beating the Avalanche 5-4 in overtime and winning as hefty + 180 road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a slight -110 road favorite. We've seen some wiseguy money back the Kings, pushing Los Angeles up to -120 or more across the market. Road favorites with a line move in their favor are 56-27 (68%) this season. Los Angeles also has value as a favorite vs a tired team as the Ducks will be playing their fifth game in seven days. Favorites playing tired teams in this spot are 63-26 (71%) this season. The Kings are + 3 in goal differential. The Ducks are -21. Los Angeles is 6-5-1 on the road. Anaheim is 3-7-3 at home. We might also be in for a low scoring game. The total is 5.5 with the under juiced up to -135, signaling under liability. The Ducks are 15-9-1 to the under this season. The Kings are 13-10 to the over. 

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