Monday Sharp Action Report for Marlins-Nats, Pacers-Heat and Islanders-Flyers

August 24, 2020 12:07 AM

After an absurd chalk stretch that extended most of last week, NBA underdogs barked back on Sunday with a 3-1 ATS record. The most thrilling dog cover (and straight up win) came from the Mavericks. Luka Doncic heroically overcame a sprained ankle to score 43-points, including a last-second buzzer-beating three, to beat the Clippers 135-133 in overtime. Sharps were all over the Mavericks. They only received a third of spread bets but took in sharp reverse line movement + 8.5 to + 7.5. The Mavs cashed + 260 on the moneyline. 

Two other dogs covered thanks to epic last-second three pointers that were meaningless to the final score but massive for bettors. They were also awful bad beats to those who laid the points with the favorites. 

The Celtics led the 76ers 110-103 but then Joel Embiid hit a three with 2 seconds left to make it 110-103, giving 76ers ticket holders a back-door cover. Wiseguys were hitting Philly all day, dropping the 76ers from + 8 to + 7.5. Then the same thing happened in the late game. The Jazz led 129-124 and then Jamal Murray hit a three as time expired to make it 129-127, giving Nuggets spread bettors a thrilling last-second cover. Denver opened + 3 and closed + 3.5. The only favorite to cover was the Raptors. They obliterated the Nets 150-122 as 14-point favorites.

Overs went 3-1 on Sunday. Over/unders are now an even 14-14 (50%) in the playoffs. 

Today, we have four more NBA games on tap. We also have 9 MLB games and 2 NHL games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

6:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (11-11) at Washington Nationals (11-14)

 

This is the final game of this extended five-game series. Both teams have earned a pair of wins thus far. Washington is coming off a 9-3 win over the Marlins on Sunday as -145 favorites. Tonight's pitching matchup pits Miami's Pablo Lopez (2-1, 2.42 ERA) against Washington's Austin Voth (0-2, 5.00 ERA). The Nats opened as -130 home favorites and the Fish a + 120 underdog. We've seen a huge sharp adjustment toward the road dog, with Washington dropping to -115 and Miami + 105. The Marlins have value as a road divisional dog with a high total (9.5). Some books are juicing up the over 9.5 to -115. The forecast calls for mid-80s and 5-8 MPH winds out to right center. Both teams are profitable to the over this year with Miami 12-10 and Washington 14-11. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Indiana Pacers vs Miami Heat

The Heat lead this best-of-seven series 3-0 and can sweep the Pacers with a victory tonight. Miami has won and covered in all three games thus far, with spreads of -4, -4 and -5. This pivotal Game 4 opened with the Heat listed as 7-point favorites, the highest spread of the series. Despite roughly two-thirds of bets laying the points with Miami, we've actually seen this line dip to 6.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Pacers + 7, causing the line to be adjusted a half-point in their favor. The total is 216.5. The under is 2-1 this series, although the last game sailed over the closing total of 213.5 with a combined 239 points between both teams. 

7 p.m. ET: New York Islanders vs Philadelphia Flyers

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference second round series. The Islanders are coming off a 4-1 series win over the Caps while the Flyers took down the Canadiens 4-2. This is the first postseason matchup between these teams since 1987. This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a short -120 favorites and the Islanders a + 110 dog. Smart money has come down on the undervalued and underrated Islanders, moving the game closer to a pick'em. Philadelphia has fallen from -120 to -110 while New York has moved from + 110 to even money + 100. The Islanders enjoy one extra day of rest, having wrapped up their previous series on Aug. 20 while the Flyers last played on Aug. 21.

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks  and for other legalized states

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