Monday Sharp Action Report for Celtics-Raptors, Diamondbacks-Giants and Clippers-Nuggets

September 6, 2020 11:21 PM

After an epic week-long stretch where dogs and unders dominated, NBA favorites and overs bounced back with a perfect 4-0 showing on Sunday. In the early game, the Bucks staved off elimination with a gutsy 118-115 overtime win over the Heat. Milwaukee saw one of the sharpest line moves in recent memory, moving from + 2 to -2 despite receiving less than half of spread tickets. The Bucks lost star Giannis Antetokounmpo to an ankle injury but still found a way to win and cover. Milwaukee now trails the series 3-1 but is able to force a Game 5. No NBA team has ever come back from a 3-0 series deficit. The Heat are -1112 favorites (92%) to win the series at BetMGM. The Bucks are + 700 underdogs. 

In the late game, the Lakers beat the Rockets 117-109 to even their series at one game apiece. Los Angeles won and covered as 6-point favorites. Overs went 2-0 on Sunday, snapping a 15-3 under stretch over the previous eight days. 

Today, a new week begins with 2 NBA games, 11 MLB games, 1 NHL game and 1 College Football game. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

6:30 p.m. ET: Boston Celtics vs Toronto Raptors


This is Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. After racing out to a 2-0 series lead, the Celtics have dropped two straight. Toronto is coming off a 100-93 victory as 2-point dogs in Game 4 to even the series 2-2. This line opened with Toronto listed as a short 1-point favorite. Some books opened at a pick'em. Smart money has come down on the Celtics to get back to their winning ways, which has pushed Boston to a 1-point favorite. Regardless of which side you like in this matchup, the moneyline might be the smarter way to go as opposed to the spread. Smart money has also appeared on the under, dropping the total from 212.5 to 212. Some books are even down to 211.5. The under is 4-0 so far this series. The Raptors are slight -120 favorites to win this series at BetMGM. The Celtics are + 100. 

8:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (15-26) at San Francisco Giants (20-21)

The Giants dropped the series opener but have since won two straight, including a 4-2 win on Sunday as -150 favorites. San Francisco can take three out of four with a win in today's series finale. The Diamondbacks will start Zac Gallen (1-0, 1.80 ERA) while the Giants counter with Kevin Gausman (2-2, 4.43 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 road favorite and the Giants a + 110 home dog. On paper, the DBacks have the starting pitcher advantage. However, pro money has come pouring on the streaking Giants, which has dropped the line closer to a pick'em (Arizona -107, San Francisco -103). The Giants are -2 in run differential while the Snakes are -40. 

9 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers vs Denver Nuggets

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Semifinals. After getting crushed 120-97 in the series opener, the Nuggets bounced back with a huge 110-101 victory as 9-point dogs in Game 2. This line opened with the Clippers listed as 7.5-point favorites. Sharps rushed to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles, pushing the line up from Clippers -7.5 to -9. One big variable to monitor here is the health of Nuggets star big man Nikola Jokic. He is listed as questionable with a wrist injury. Pro money has also come down on the under, dropping the total from 221 to 219. The under is 2-0 so far this series. With the series tied 1-1, the Clippers are -1000 to win the series (91%) and the Nuggets are + 650. 

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