Monday Sharp Action for Caps-Lightning, Grizzlies-Pelicans and Indians-Reds

August 2, 2020 11:53 PM

Sharps, contrarian bettors and sportsbooks had a profitable Sunday, with dogs going 3-2-1 ATS and unders finishing 4-2. All three dogs also won outright. The Suns (+ 6) beat the Mavs 117-115, the Spurs (+ 2.5) took down the Grizzlies 108-106 and the Rockets (+ 5) upended the Bucks 120-116. 

The Rockets were the epitome of a contrarian value play. Houston only received one-third of spread bets in the most heavily bet game of the day. The game was also in primetime and nationally televised, creating even more value to go the other way. Houston opened at + 3.5 and closed at + 5, giving them inflated line value as well. 

Now it's on to Monday. We have another packed slate with 6 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 8 MLB games. Here are a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action. 

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at Noon ET. 

4 p.m. ET: Washington Capitals (41-28-8) vs Tampa Bay Lightning (43-27-6)

 

These two Eastern Conference leaders and Stanley Cup contenders are both making their bubble debuts. The Lightning opened as a short -130 favorite and the Caps a + 110 dog. Average Joe hockey bettors see two great times and say "give me the dog getting plus money." But pros aren't falling into the conventional wisdom trap. They're fading the trendy dog. We've seen sharp money steam Tampa Bay, pushing the line up to Lightning -135. This is a revenge spot for Tampa. The Caps are 3-0 against the Lightning this season, winning 4-3, 5-2 and 3-1. 

More NHL Sharp Action

Vegas -125 to -135 vs Dallas

Pittsburgh -160 to -170 vs Montreal

Edmonton -130 to -135 vs Chicago

6:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies (32-35) vs New Orleans Pelicans (28-38)

 

Both of these teams are desperate for a win to stay in contention and improve their seeding. The Grizzlies currently own the 8th and final playoff spot in the West but several teams are on their heels, including the Pelicans who are 3.5-games back. The bubble hasn't been kind to Memphis as the Grizzlies are already 0-2, losing to the Blazers 140-135 in overtime and then falling to the Spurs 108-106 yesterday. The Pelicans are also 0-2 in the bubble, losing to the Jazz 106-104 and getting blown out by the Clippers 126-103 on Saturday. 

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point favorite. Sharps immediately laid the points, which has pushed the Pelicans up to -4. Some books are showing -4 at -115 juice, signaling a possible move up to -4.5. One big reason pros are leaning New Orleans is their rest advantage. The Grizzlies are on the second night of a back-to-back while the Pelicans are coming off a day of rest. Also, favorites off a loss of 10-points or more are a smart buy-low bet historically. 

6:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Indians (5-5) vs Cincinnati Reds (4-5)

 

These in-state rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Indians have struggled as of late, losing three in a row and four of their last five games. Meanwhile, the Reds have rebounded from a bad start to win two in a row and three of their last four. Cleveland sends Zach Plesac (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound. In his only start this season, Plesac went 8 innings and gave up no earned runs with 11 strikeouts in a 4-0 loss to the White Sox. The Reds counter with ace Sonny Gray (2-0, 0.71 ERA), who has looked unhittable so far this season.

The Reds opened as short -120 home favorites and the Indians a + 110 dog. The public typically wants to back a hot team and fade a cold team. However, casual bettors still like Cleveland and feel they're "due" for a win. But pros are siding with Cincy at home, pushing the line closer to Reds -130. Essentially, we're looking at a rare contrarian favorite with sharp reverse line movement. 

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN NBA Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks and for other legalized states

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