The Cardinals (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) were once the darling of the NFL but stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4 over their last five games. Arizona just fell to Seattle 38-30 in Week 18, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six but lost to the 49ers 27-24 in the regular season finale, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. The Cardinals finished 83 in point differential. The Rams finished 88.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point home favorite. Some books touched 4.5 and immediately got hit with Arizona money, dropping the line back to 4. The line remained frozen at 4 much of the week. But over the weekend, we saw further sharp action hit Arizona, dropping the line from 4 to 3.5.
Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Divisional dogs in the playoffs are 8-5 ATS (62%). Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-23 ATS, 61%). These teams split the two regular season matchups, with the dog winning outright both times. Kyler Murray is 16-7 ATS (70%) in his career as a dog. The Cardinals went 8-1 on the road this season and only 3-5 at home. The Rams will miss both starting safeties due to injury, including Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp.
We've also seen some sneaky sharp under money show up. The total opened at 50 and the public is hammering the over, yet the line has stayed the same or fallen slightly to 49.5. Playoff totals that fall at least a half point are 24-18 (58%) to the under the past decade.