Monday Night Playoff Football Sharp Report

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NFL playoff favorites stayed hot on Sunday, going 2-1 ATS. Favorites are now 4-1 ATS to begin the playoffs. Yesterday the Bucs (-7) brushed aside the Eagles 31-15 and the Chiefs (-12) crushed the Steelers 42-21. The lone upset came from the 49ers (3.5), who took down the Cowboys 23-17.
 
Unders went 2-1 on Sunday and are now 3-2 this postseason. 
 
Here are some opening lines for next weekend's Divisional Round
 
Bengals at Titans (-3.5), OU 46.5
49ers at Packers (-5.5) OU 47.5
Bills at Chiefs (-2.5), OU 53.5
 
With the Eagles, Cowboys and Steelers all getting eliminated yesterday, here are the updated Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.
 
Packers 375
Chiefs 400
Bills, Bucs 550
Titans 850
49ers 1000
Bengals, Rams 1200
Cardinals 2500
 
 
Now it's on to Monday where we have a Monday Night Football playoff game, plus 12 NBA games, 8 NHL games and a handful of College Basketball matchups. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 2:40 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
 
 
8:15 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
 

The Cardinals (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) were once the darling of the NFL but stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4 over their last five games. Arizona just fell to Seattle 38-30 in Week 18, losing outright as 5.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six but lost to the 49ers 27-24 in the regular season finale, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. The Cardinals finished  83 in point differential. The Rams finished  88. 

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point home favorite. Some books touched 4.5 and immediately got hit with Arizona money, dropping the line back to 4. The line remained frozen at 4 much of the week. But over the weekend, we saw further sharp action hit Arizona, dropping the line from 4 to 3.5. 

Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Divisional dogs in the playoffs are 8-5 ATS (62%). Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-23 ATS, 61%). These teams split the two regular season matchups, with the dog winning outright both times. Kyler Murray is 16-7 ATS (70%) in his career as a dog. The Cardinals went 8-1 on the road this season and only 3-5 at home. The Rams will miss both starting safeties due to injury, including Jordan Fuller and Taylor Rapp.

We've also seen some sneaky sharp under money show up. The total opened at 50 and the public is hammering the over, yet the line has stayed the same or fallen slightly to 49.5. Playoff totals that fall at least a half point are 24-18 (58%) to the under the past decade. 

 

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