Monday Night Football Sharp Report

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It was a mixed bag for NFL Week 7 bettors, as favorites went 6-4 straight up on Sunday but dogs and favorites split 5-5 ATS. One notable takeaway was big double-digit favorites going 2-1 ATS, with covers by the Cardinals (-20, beat Texans 31-5) and Bucs (-12, beat Bears 38-3). Bettors are often wary of laying big numbers, but double-digit favorites are now 8-3 ATS (73%) on the season. Also, the Colts also beat the 49ers 30-18 on Sunday Night Football, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. With the cover, primetime dogs improve to 13-7 ATS (65%). Unders went 6-5 on Sunday to improve to 58-47 (55%) on the season. 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 7 NHL games and 9 NBA games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 7...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks

These NFC non-division foes are trending in opposite directions. The Saints (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) are coming off a bye having won two of their last three games, most recently beating Washington 33-22 and covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Steeelers 23-20, although Seattle covered as 5.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is all over the Saints and happy to fade Geno Smith and the Russell Wilson-less Seahawks. This lopsided betting pushed New Orleans all the way up to -5.5 during the week. Then we saw a wave of buyback hit Seattle plus the points, dropping the line back down to 4. 

Both teams match several profitable betting systems. Favorites off a bye, like the Saints, are roughly 58% ATS the last decade. Road favorites off a bye improve to 66% ATS. Meanwhile, Seattle has value as a contrarian inflated dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 13-7 ATS (65%). Conference dogs are 43-30 ATS (59%). Conference dogs  7 or less are 34-20 ATS (63%).

We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 44 to 41.5. When the total is a low 45 or less, the under is 19-11 (63%) this season. Weather could play a factor in this one. The forecast calls for low 50s with rain and 15 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (55%). The Saints are 3-2 to the under this season. The Seahawks are 4-1-1 to the under. 

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