Monday Night Football Sharp Report


Sunday was a banner day for public bettors and a rough day for sportsbooks and contrarians as NFL Week 14 favorites went 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS, their best week of the season by far. Overs also reigned supreme, going 8-4. Sportsbooks suffered one of their worst days of the season, with popular chalk coming through for the public at nearly every turn. The Packers, Titans, Chiefs, Saints, Seahawks, Broncos, Chargers and Bucs all received roughly two-thirds of bets or more and all covered. 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 9 NBA games, 1 NHL game and several College Basketball games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 14...


8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

These NFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Rams (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) are just 1-3 over their last four games, although they just crushed the Jaguars 37-7 last week, easily covering as 14-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (10-2 SU, 9-3 ATS) have the best record in the NFL and have won three of their last four games. Arizona just took down Chicago 33-22, covering as 8-point road favorites. The Rams are  66 in point differential this season. The Cardinals are  119. 

This line opened with Arizona listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with the home team. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has remained at 2.5 or even dipped to 2 at some shops. This signals some sharp line freeze and reverse line movement action on the road dog Rams. Road dogs are 69-50 ATS (58%) this season, with short road dogs  3 or less 22-10 ATS (69%). Primetime dogs are 24-17 ATS (59%). The Rams also have value as a divisional dog. Sean McVay is 7-3 ATS in his career as a road dog. Los Angeles is also in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to  8.5), which goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. When the total is 50 or more, the under is 31-25 (55%) this season. Primetime unders are 22-18 (55%), including 20-10 (67%) since October. Late season divisional unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. These teams met back on October 3 and Arizona won 37-20. 

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