Monday Night Football Sharp Report

jones

NFL favorites went 7-5 ATS on Sunday, while Unders also went 7-5. Totals that fell at least 1-point went 6-3 to the under. They are now 51-35 (59%) on the season. Non-conference unders went 3-1 yesterday to improve to 41-21 (66%). 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 10 NBA games, 5 NHL games and several College Basketball games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 13...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills

First place in the AFC East is on the line in this big Monday Night Football showdown.The Patriots (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS) are riding a 6-game win streak and just crushed the Titans 36-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (7-4 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) are a mediocre 3-3 over their last six games, but just beat the Saints 31-6 as 7-point road favorites. The Patriots are  146 in point differential. The Bills are  144. 

This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has leaned New England, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. Short road dogs  3 or less are 19-10 ATS (66%) this season. Divisional dogs are 29-23 ATS (56%). Primetime dogs are 23-15 ATS (61%). The Patriots are also in a key teaser spot: by taking New England from  2.5 to  8.5 bettors are able to go through the two key numbers of 3 and 7.

We've also seen some heavy money target the under, dropping the total from 45 to 41. A  big reason for the under getting steamed is the weather forecast. It's expected to be 30 degrees with 20 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 37-21 (64%). Late season (Week 12 and on) divisional unders are 11-4 (73%) and roughly 57% over the past decade. Primetime unders are 21-16 (57%) this season, including 19-8 (70%) since the start of November. At BetMGM, the under is getting 55% of bets but 85% of money, indicating wiseguy support. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. He also favors road teams (56% ATS). 

Buffalo is currently a -130 favorite to win the AFC East at BetMGM. The Patriots are  110. 

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