Monday Night Football Sharp Report

mahomes

 

Dogs continued their season-long hot streak on Sunday, going 8-4-1 ATS and 7-6 straight up. Dogs improve to 68-53 ATS (56.2%) on the year. Road dogs went 6-2 ATS yesterday to improve to 43-28 ATS (60.6%). Conference dogs 7 or less also went 6-2 ATS to improve to 42-22 ATS (65.6%). 

The biggest surprise of the day was the Jets (11.5) beating the Bengals 34-31. It was the biggest upset of the year and the first time a dog of 7-points or more won a game outright. The Bengals were one of the most popular Survivor plays yesterday, which ended the season for those that use Cincinnati. 

We also saw buying low on huge line moves go 2-0 ATS. The Titans moved from -1.5 to  3 and beat the Colts 34-31. Then the Cowboys moved from -2.5 to  4 and beat the Vikings 20-16 with backup Cooper Rush at quarterback. With Dallas covering, the Cowboys improve to 7-0 ATS on the season and primetime dogs move to 16-7 ATS (70%). 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 9 NBA games and 3 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 8...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs

Both of these non-conference foes are looking to claw closer to .500. The Giants (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS) just beat the Panthers 25-3, winning outright as 3-point home dogs. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for New York. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last five games, most recently falling to Tennessee 27-3 and losing outright as 4-point road favorites. The Giants are -41 in point differential and the Chiefs are -15. 

The early lookahead line for this game was Chiefs -13 at home. The game quickly adjusted to Kansas City listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public isn't concerned with the Chiefs struggling this season and two-thirds of bets are rushing to the window to lay the points with Kansas City. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line remain frozen at 10. In fact, some books have dipped briefly to 9.5 throughout the week before ticking back up to 10. This signals some respected money leaning Giants plus the points. 

New York matches several profitable betting systems this season. Road dogs are 43-28 ATS (60.6%) this season. Primetime dogs are 16-7 ATS (70%). It's also very rare for a dog to be getting 10 points on Monday Night Football. Over the past decade, MNF double-digit dogs are 16-4 ATS (80%). The Giants also have value as a contrarian dog in a heavily bet primetime game. 

Respected money also appears to be leaning on the under. The total opened at 54 and has fallen to 52 despite a majority of bets taking the over. Non-conference unders are 22-13 ATS (62.9%) this season. Weather could play a factor here. The forecast calls for low 40s with 5 MPH winds and possibly some rain. 

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