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Monday Night Football Sharp Report



NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit on Sunday, going 7-6 ATS. Road dogs laughed in the face of home field advantage once again, going 6-2 ATS to improve to 62-35 ATS (64%) on the season. Road dogs  7 or less went 4-2 ATS to improve to 51-19 ATS (73%). 

Unders had a profitable day as well, going 8-5. Unders improve to 93-70 (57%) on the season. Weather continues to play a factor with totals as the calendar flips from Fall to Winter. Windy unders 10 MPH or more went 3-1 on Sunday to improve to 35-16 (69%) on the season. 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 10 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 50 College Basketball games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 11...


8:15 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

These NFC non-division foes are trending in opposite directions in recent weeks. The Giants (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games, most recently beating the Raiders 23-16 as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Bucs (6-3 SU, 2-6 ATS) have lost two straight games. Tampa Bay just fell to Washington 29-19, losing outright as 10-point road favorites. 

This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public is relatively split and leaning slightly toward laying the points with Tom Brady and the defending champs at home in a "get right spot." However, this line has fallen from 12.5 to 11, signaling some sharp action grabbing the Giants plus the points. New York matches several profitable betting systems this season. Road dogs are 62-35 ATS (64%), conference dogs are 67-42 ATS (62%) and primetime dogs are 22-10 ATS (69%). Double-digit Monday Night Football dogs are also very rare but highly profitable, going 17-4 ATS (81%) over the past decade. The Giants enjoy a rest advantage as New York is coming off a bye while Tampa Bay played on Sunday. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (59% ATS). 

Respected money has also leaned under. The total opened at 51 and has fallen to 50 despite the public pounding the over, indicating some sharp reverse line movement on the under. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds, making this a "windy under" system match. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-15 (69%) this season. If the windy under also takes place in a conference game, the under is 20-11 (65%). If the total is 50 or higher, the under is 29-21 (58%).

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