Monday Night Football Sharp Report

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NFL chalk favorites and overs have reigned supreme to start December. But yesterday we saw regression finally hit as Week 15 underdogs went 6-4 ATS and unders went 7-3. The Saints upset the Bucs 9-0 on Sunday Night Football, winning outright as 11.5-point road dogs. With the Saints covering, primetime dogs improve to 26-18 ATS (59%) on the season. The Lions pulled off the biggest upset of the day, shocking the Cardinals 30-12 as 13-point home dogs. Detroit cashed  550 on the moneyline. 

Now it's on to Monday where we have a pair of Monday Night Football games to get down on. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's NFL action...

 

5 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Cleveland Browns


This game was originally scheduled for Saturday but got pushed back due to COVID. The Raiders (6-7 SU, 5-8 ATS) have lost two straight and are just 1-5 over their last six games. Vegas just got demolished by the Chiefs 48-9, failing to cover as 9-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Browns (7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS) are 3-2 over their last five games and just beat the Ravens 24-22, although Cleveland failed to cover as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 6-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw the line flip all the way to Raiders -3 because the Browns had more than 20 players in COVID protocol. But once the game was shifted back a few days, it allowed time for several Browns players to test negative and play in the game. As a result, the line shifted back to Browns -3 at home. At BetMGM, 54% of bets and 50% of money is on the Raiders. Road dogs  7 or less are 61-27 ATS (69%). Short road dogs  3 or less are 24-12 ATS (67%). 

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

The Vikings (6-7 SU, 7-6 ATS) snapped a two-game losing streak last week, beating the Steelers 36-28 and covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Bears (4-9 SU, 4-9 ATS) have lost two straight and are just 1-7 over their last eight games. Chicago just fell to Green Bay 45-30, failing to cover as 12-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. Big money has faded the Bears, who have COVID issues, steaming the Vikings up from -3.5 to -6.5. At BetMGM, the Vikings are getting 62% of bets but 80% of money. Many bettors will likely tease Minnesota down from -6.5 to -0.5. Minnesota has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bears played on Sunday. At this point, Chicago offers buy-low inflated line value. Conference dogs  7 or less are 68-37 (65%) this season. Divisional dogs are 55% ATS and primetime dogs are 59% ATS.

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