Monday Night Football Sharp Report

fins

The public cleaned up on Sunday's NFL Week 16, with favorites going 7-3 ATS (two games closed at a pick'em) and overs going 9-3. The Texans pulled off the biggest upset of the day, shocking the Chargers 41-29 as 13-point home dogs. Houston cashed 500 on the moneyline.

Here are the updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM

Chiefs 400

Packers 450

Bucs 600

Bills 850

Rams 900

Cowboys 1000

Colts, Patriots 1800

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football to get down on, plus 7 NBA games and a pair of College Football Bowl games. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's final game of Week 16...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints

Both of these non-conference foes are "in the hunt" when it comes to playoff contention. The Dolphins (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) started 1-7 but have since won six straight, most recently beating the Jets 31-24 last week but failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (7-7 SU, 7-7 ATS) are riding a two-game winning streak and just shocked the Bucs 9-0 as 11.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 3-point home favorite. We've seen massive line movement toward Miami, flipping the Dolphins from a 3-point dog to a 3-point favorite due to COVID issues on New Orleans. Taysom Hill and Trevor Siemian are in protocol and rookie Ian Book is set to make his NFL debut for the Saints. At BetMGM, the Dolphins are receiving 58% of bets but 72% of money. Those late to the party looking to play Miami but wary of laying the worst of the number could also target the Dolphins on the moneyline (-165). 

Many books are juicing up the Dolphins -3 to -115 or -120, signaling a possible further rise to -3.5. When the hook presents itself, expect some buyback on Saints 3.5. Primetime dogs are 27-20 ATS (57%) this season. Sean Payton is 5-3 ATS as a dog this season and 46-28 ATS (62%) as a dog in his career. Monday Night Football home teams are 11-5 straight up (69%) this season. MNF favorites are 10-6 straight up. 

We've also seen respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 39 to 37. At BetMGM, 60% of bets and 66% of dollars are on the under. Non-conference unders are 45-28 (62%) this season. Primetime unders are 28-22 (56%). Both teams are 8-6 to the under this season. The under is 5-0 the last five Saints games and 5-2 the last seven Dolphins games. Adrian Hill, the lead ref, is 29-16 (64%) to the under historically. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

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College Lines Revealed: ATS record is a great indicator as to if the market overvalues or undervalues a team, especially late in the season. Consider betting on teams with a strong ATS record if you believe the betting market has not properly adjusted. View more tips

Live Bet Sunday: Unless you really feel you need to get out of a bet, you don't have to attempt to hedge when the game isn't going as you predicted. Hedging is just raises the floor, but lowers the ceiling on you original investment. Unless you're confident that you're you're going to win your hedge, sometimes it's best to ride out the original bet. View more tips

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Matt Youmans: Colts -2.5 vs. Steelers. View more picks.

Dave Tuley: Broncos +8 vs. RavensView more picks.

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