Monday Night Football Sharp Report

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NFL favorites posted their best Sunday of the season yesterday, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS. Dogs remain profitable on the year at 40-33 ATS (54 percent). However, over the past two weeks favorites have gone 17-12 ATS (59 percent). This chalk resurgence represents major regression from the torrid start dogs got off to in the first three weeks. 

The top spot for favorites this season has been non-conference favorites (17-12 ATS, 59 percent). Conference favorites are 26-38 ATS (41 percent). Non-conference favorites have historically performed better due to the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team. 

Now it's on to Monday, where we have a big Monday Night Football game on tap along with Game 3 of the ALCS. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 6...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans

This non-division AFC grudge match features two teams trending in an upward direction. The Bills (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won four straight and just took down the Chiefs 38-20, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Titans (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) have won three of their last four and just dismissed the Jaguars 37-19, easily covering as 4.5-point road favorites. 

This line opened with the Bills listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is more than happy to lay the points with red-hot Buffalo, especially after their dominant win over the Chiefs last week. This lopsided betting steamed Buffalo up from -3 to -6. Some shops are even inching up to -6.5. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-25 ATS (61 percent) this season. 

The Titans have value as a super contrarian home dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 11-6 ATS (65 percent) this season. Conference dogs are 38-26 ATS (59 percent). Mike Vrabel is 13-9 ATS (59 percent) as a dog. Julio Jones is upgraded to probable and expected to play tonight, ending a two-game absence. 

The total opened at 54.5 and has ticked down slightly to 53.5. Primetime overs are 10-6-1 (62 percent) this season. These teams played last season and the Titans won 42-16 in Nashville. Tonight's forecast calls for high 50s with little to no wind, a perfect night for football. 

 

Prop bets to Consider

The Titans rank in the bottom half of the NFL in terms of passing yards allowed (264.5 per game). The Bills have allowed just 392 rushing yards this season, 2nd-best behind the Bucs. 

Josh Allen Over 292.5 passing yards

Allen has gone over this number of two of his last three games. 

Derrick Henry Under 97.5 rushing yards

TD Anytime scorer

Dawson Knox  140

Knox leads Buffalo with 5 TD receptions. He has scored a touchdown in four straight games. 

 

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