Monday Night Football Sharp Report

steelers

 

NFL underdogs continued their season-long hot streak on Sunday, going 9-3 ATS across Week 9 action. Dogs improve to 77-57 ATS (58%) on the season. In yet another example of home field advantage not being what it used to be, road dogs went 7-1 ATS yesterday to improve to 50-30 ATS (63%). Conference dogs  7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) and short road dogs  3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%). 

We also saw windy unders 10 MPH or more go 4-0 on Sunday. They are now 28-14 (67%) on the season. 

Now it's on to Monday where we have Monday Night Football along with 8 NBA games and 3 NHL games to choose from. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 9...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers

This Monday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference opponents trending in opposite directions. The Bears (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) have lost three straight games and just fell to the 49ers 33-22, failing to cover as 4.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Steelers (4-3 SU, 3-4 ATS) have won three straight games and just beat the Browns 15-10, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Earlier in the week we saw this line fall from 6.5 to 6, signaling some respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Bears. However, we saw some strong late buyback in recent days on the Steelers, with Pittsburgh getting steamed back up to -7, which is where we stand now. Chicago has value as a road dog (50-30 ATS, 62% this season) and a primetime dog (18-8 ATS, 69%). 

We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total opened at 40 and respected under money has dropped it down to 39. Non-conference unders are 28-15 (65%) this season. If the total is 45 or less, the under is 25-15 (63%). When the total stays the same or falls, the under is 42-35 (55%). Tony Corrente, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (58%). The forecast calls for mid 50s, clear skies and 5 MPH winds. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Bears 6-2 to the under and the Steelers 5-1-1 to the under. 

 

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