Monday Night Football Sharp Report: Steelers at Colts

November 28, 2022 12:20 AM

Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a full breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET.

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for Monday Night Football tonight...


8:15 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 39.5)

The Steelers (3-7) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Bengals 37-30, failing to cover as 3.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Colts (4-6-1) have lost four of their last five games and just fell to the Eagles 17-16 but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. 

This line opened with the Colts listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public sees Indianapolis as the lesser of two evils and 63% of bets are laying the points with the Colts at home. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Indianapolis fall from -3 to -2.5. This signals some respected money grabbing Pittsburgh at the key number of +3, triggering sharp movement in favor of the road dog. 

The Steelers match several profitable betting systems. Dogs that failed to cover the previous week are 40-27 ATS (60%) this season. Primetime dogs are 21-14 ATS (60%). Mike Tomlin is 48-27 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. Pittsburgh has correlative betting value as a dog in a super low total game. The Steelers are also in a prime teaser spot (-2.5 to +8.5), which goes through the top two key numbers of 3 and 7. One thing to monitor on gameday is whether any late Colts money pushes this line back to 3. This would indicate late sharp action laying the points with Indy below the key number. 

The total opened at 39.5 and hasn't budged despite 60% of bets taking the over. This signals a smart money line freeze on the under. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (59%). The Colts are 9-2 to the under this season. The Steelers are 6-4 to the under. 

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