NFL underdogs produced their fourth straight winning Sunday yesterday, grinding out a 7-6 ATS record across the Week 4 slate. Dogs are now 38-25 ATS (60 percent) on the season. The biggest decision of the day went to the sportsbooks and brave contrarian bettors as the Patriots lost 19-17 to the Bucs but covered as 6.5-point home dogs. It was a big miss for the public, as nearly 90-percent of bets laid the points with Tampa. With the Pats covering, primetime dogs are now 7-4 ATS (64 percent) on the season. Over/Unders split 7-7 yesterday. Unders remain profitable for the season at 36-27 (57 percent).
Now it's on to Monday, where we have a big Monday Night Football game on tap. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 1 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET and then co-hosting Betting Across America with Mike Pritchard from 3 to 4 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for the final game of NFL Week 4...
8:15 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
This Monday Night showdown features a pair of AFC West rivals who are fighting for the top spot in the division. The Raiders (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) are undefeated and just took down the Dolphins 31-28, although Vegas failed to cover as a 3.5-point home favorite. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) just went into Arrowhead and shocked the mighty Chiefs 30-24, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. The Raiders are 18 in point differential. Los Angeles is 7.
This line opened with the Chargers listed a 3-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this line speaks volumes. Typically, teams get about 3-points (maybe a little less) for home field advantage. So with the Chargers -3 at home the books are pretty much saying these teams are dead even and the line would be a pick'em on a neutral field. Some early money leaned Chargers, driving Los Angeles up from -3 to -3.5. But once the hook was available, pros pounced on the Raiders 3.5, causing most books to fall back to 3.
Vegas matches several betting systems. Short road dogs 6 or less are 19-5 ATS (79 percent) this season. Primetime dogs are 7-4 ATS this season and 35-23 ATS (60 percent) the past two seasons. The Raiders also have value as a divisional dog (57 percent last two seasons). Divisional matchups benefit dogs as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. Vegas is also a "dog who can score," averaging 30 PPG. Higher scoring dogs are more likely to keep up with the favorite or backdoor cover.
Pros have also leaned on the under, dropping the total from 52.5 to 51.5. Primetime overs are 8-3 this season. However, divisional unders that fall at least a half point are roughly 54% to the under the past decade. The lead referee, John Hussey, is 57-percent to the under historically. The Chargers are 3-0 to the under. The Raiders are 2-1 to the over.
Prop Bet to Consider
Derek Carr Over 282.5 passing yards
*Carr leads the NFL in passing yards with 1,203. Through three games he's finished with 435, 382 and 286.