Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 10-15 podcast at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves each day. For an in-depth breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the Market Insights Podcast at 3 p.m. ET.
NFL dogs and unders continued their torrid stretch yesterday. Dogs went 9-4-1 ATS with 8 outright wins to improve to 28-18-1 ATS (61%) on the season. Unders went 8-6 to improve to 30-17 (64%).
We have one game left in Week 3. Let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football showdown...
8:15 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (1-1) at New York Giants (2-0)
Both of these NFC East rivals are coming off Week 2 victories. The Cooper Rush and the Cowboys just shocked the Bengals 20-17, winning outright as 7-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Giants just held off the Panthers 19-16, winning outright as 1-point home dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 3-point home favorite. Some books opened as high as Giants -4.5. We've seen steady, consistent action on the Cowboys, dropping the line down to Giants -1. We haven't seen any buyback on the Giants. Currently 44% of bets and 45% of money is taking the points with the Cowboys at DraftKings.
The Cowboys match several profitable betting systems. Dogs are 28-18-1 ATS (61%) on the season. Primetime dogs are 63-47 ATS (57%) since 2019. Short road dogs 3 or less are 74-55 ATS (57%) since 2019. Dallas also has value as a divisional dog. Historically, dogs within the division have barked louder than dogs outside of the division due to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
Pros are also expecting a low scoring game in this one. The total opened at 40 and has fallen to 39, signaling respected money taking the under. Currently 35% of bets and 39% of money is taking the under, indicating a contrarian under with reverse line movement. Unders are 30-17 (64%) this season. Divisional unders are 14-3 (82%). Primetime unders are 7-2. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 10 MPH winds. Historically, when the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is roughly 55% over the past decade. Both teams are 2-0 to the under this season.