Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a new 10-15 minute podcast that highlights the biggest games and line moves you need to know about each day. For an in-depth breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll also be joining Primetime Bets tonight at 8:15 p.m. ET to offer an early NFL Week 2 Sharp Report.
In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football showdown...
8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
After going 7-10 and missing the playoffs last season, the Broncos brought in Nathaniel Hackett to take over as their new head coach and acquired Russell Wilson as their new quarterback. Denver's win total is 9.5 with the over juiced to -140 at BetMGM. On the other hand, the Seahawks also went 7-10 and missed the playoffs last season, but held onto Pete Carroll while trading away Wilson, their franchise star. The Seahawks will start veteran Geno Smith behind center. Seattle's win total is 5.5 with the over juiced to -125.
This line opened with the Broncos listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public is hammering Wilson and the Broncos, with 89% of bets at DraftKings laying the points with Denver. This heavily lopsided betting, along with some respected money earlier this summer, has driven the Broncos all the way up from -4 to -7. We've seen some sharp buyback on the Seahawks getting the key number of + 7, with some books dropping the line back down to 6.5.
Seattle has value as an inflated dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Seahawks also possess notable contrarian value, as they're only receiving 11% of bets but 21% of money, a "low bets, higher dollars" discrepancy. Primetime dogs are 60-44 ATS (58%) over the past two seasons.
We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 41 and has been steamed up to 44, signaling an overload of respected action on the over. Currently 52% of bets but 62% of money is taking the over. The forecast calls for low 70s with mild 3-5 MPH winds, so weather shouldn't be an issue in Seattle.