Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves that bettors need to know about each day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday's slate, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.
Yesterday we saw NFL Week 6 dogs and favorites split 6-6 ATS while unders went an impressive 8-4.
With this in mind, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football showdown...
8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 45.5)
These AFC West rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Broncos (2-3) have lost two straight games and just fell to the Colts 12-9, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Chargers (3-2) have won two straight games and just edged the Browns 30-28, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Los Angeles at home. However, despite receiving 77% of bets, we've seen the Chargers fall from -6 to -4.5. Why would the books drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering Los Angeles to begin with? Because pro money has jumped on Denver plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Broncos.
Denver has value as a contrarian road divisional dog in a heavily bet primetime game. The Broncos are only receiving 23% of bets but 39% of money, a sharp 16% bet discrepancy. Denver has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (1-4) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (4-1). The Broncos also hold a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Chargers played on Sunday.
The Broncos match several profitable betting systems as well. Dogs are 54-38 ATS (59%) on the season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 38-24 ATS (61%). Dogs who didn't cover the previous week are 19-13 ATS (59%). Conference dogs 6 or less are 236-158 ATS (60%) since 2019. Primetime dogs are 68-51 ATS (57%) since 2020. Ron Torbert, the lead referee, is 59% ATS to the road team historically.
We've also seen sharp money hit the under, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. The under is receiving 73% of bets and 77% of money, signaling both "Pro and Joe" action on a low-scoring game. Unders are 56-37 (60%) this season. Unders that fall at least a half point are 31-20 (61%). Divisional unders are 21-10 (68%). Primetime unders are 12-6 (67%). Denver is 4-1 to the under. Los Angeles is 3-2 to the over.