Monday Night Football Sharp Report: Bengals at Browns

October 30, 2022 10:46 PM
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Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted at 2:30 p.m. ET. 

In the meantime, let's examine where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football showdown...

 

8:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (-3, 45) at Cleveland Browns

These AFC North rivals are trending in opposite directions. The Bengals (4-3) have won two in a row and four of their last five games. Cincinnati is coming off a 35-17 win over the Falcons, easily covering as a 6.5-point home favorite. On the flip side, the Browns (2-5) have lost four straight games and just fell to the Ravens 23-20 but covered as a 6.5-point road dog. 

This line opened with the Bengals listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too low and sees an easy win and cover with Cincinnati. However, despite 84% of bets laying the points, this line hasn't budged off Cincinnati -3. Anytime is briefly rises to -3.5, we've seen sharp buyback on the Browns plus the hook (+3.5), dropping it back down to 3. Essentially, we are seeing a sharp line freeze on Cleveland, with books reluctant to move the number despite heavy public on Cincinnati. 

Cleveland has value as an unpopular contrarian dog (only 16% of bets) in a heavily bet primetime game. Divisional dogs are 22-17 ATS (56%) this season. Divisional dogs 3 or more are 18-10 ATS (64%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Browns, are 50-35 ATS (59%). 

The total opened at 45 and quickly rose to 47.5 earlier in the week. Since that time, we've seen the total fall back down to 45. The Bengals will miss star WR Ja'Marr Chase, who is out due to injury. Divisional unders are 27-12 (69%) this season. Primetime unders are 15-9 (63%). The under is only receiving 33% of bets but 42% of money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy. The forecast calls for low 60s with 5-10 MPH winds. 

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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A Numbers Game: An easy place to get a leg up for new bettors is just shopping futures prices. It is easy to find major differences often. i.e. Virginia 30-1 vs 16-1. View more tips.

Follow The Money: Bet as early as possible when bowl lines come out. Lines can move more than a TD in 2-3 weeks before a game. View more tips.
 
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Gill Alexander: Seahawks -7 vs Browns.  View more picks.

Wes Reynolds: Jets +3 at Vikings.  View more picks.

 

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