Wake up with VSiN Daily Morning Bets, a quick 15-minute podcast posted at 6:30 a.m. ET highlighting the top games and biggest line moves of the day. For a comprehensive breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to catch the VSiN Market Insights Podcast. It will be posted by 2:30 p.m. ET.
In the meantime, NFL dogs and favorites split 6-6 ATS on Sunday, while unders went 7-5. Let's discuss where smart money is leaning for tonight's Monday Night Football showdown...
8:15 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at New England Patriots (-8, 40.5)
These non-conference foes are trending in opposite directions. The Bears (2-4) have lost three straight games and just fell to the Commanders 12-7, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (3-3) have won two straight and just crushed the Browns 38-15, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with the Patriots listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. Currently 68% of bets and 69% of money is laying the points with New England. This lopsided one-way action has steamed the Pats up from -6.5 to -8. Some books are hinting at a further move up to -8.5 or even higher. Brad Allen, the lead referee, is 56% ATS to the home team historically. The Patriots have yet to announce whether Mac Jones or Bailey Zappe will start at quarterback.
While all line movement has been toward New England, the Bears match several profitable betting systems. Chicago is contrarian in a heavily bet primetime game. Dogs are 61-45 ATS (58%) this season, including big dogs 7 or more 15-8 ATS (65%). Dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 22-16 ATS (58%) this season and dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 44-30 ATS (60%). Primetime dogs are 57% ATS since 2019. The Bears also enjoy a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Patriots played on Sunday.
We've also seen some respected money hit this over, driving the total up from 38.5 to 40.5. This movement is notable because, despite 60% of bets on the under, the total rose. This indicates some sharp contrarian over money (only 40% bets but 50% dollars). The forecast calls for low 60s with mild 3 MPH winds in Foxboro. Unders are 64-43 (60%) on the season. Primetime unders are 14-7 (67%).