Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Washington-Steelers and Bills-49ers

December 7, 2020 12:34 AM

Contrarian bettors and sportsbooks continued their hot streak on Sunday, as NFL Week 13 dogs went 7-5 ATS with four outright wins and unders went 8-4. Dogs improved to 104-79-2 ATS (56.8%) on the season. Overs still lead on the season (93-92-4), but yesterday marked the fourth consecutive winning week for unders (32-20, 62% since Week 10).

Here are the four outright dog wins

  • Giants (+ 11) beat Seahawks 17-12
  • Browns (+ 4) beat Titans 41-35
  • Lions (+ 3) beat Bears 34-30
  • Patriots (+ 2) beat Chargers 45-0

Colt McCoy and the Giants posted the biggest upset of the day and one of the biggest victories for the house, cashing + 450 on the moneyline. The Browns (+ 6 to + 4) and Lions (+ 4.5 to + 3) both received sharp reverse line movement in their favor.

Here are the three other dog covers

  • Broncos (+ 13) lost to Chiefs 22-16
  • Jags (+ 10) lost to Vikings 27-24
  • Jets (+ 7) lost to Raiders 31-28

The Broncos were the top contrarian hit of the day. Only about one-third of bettors were brave enough to take Denver and the points. However, the Broncos weren't just contrarian. They also received sharp reverse line movement + 14 to + 13. With the Broncos cover, primetime dogs are now 24-13 ATS (65%) on the season. Double-digit dogs went 3-1 ATS on the day and are now 12-10 ATS (55%) on the season.

Here are the five favorite covers

  • Packers (-8.5) beat Eagles 30-16
  • Dolphins (-10) beat Bengals 19-7
  • Colts (-3) beat Texans 26-20
  • Saints (-2.5) beat Falcons 21-16
  • Rams (-2.5) beat Cardinals 38-28

The Packers rolled for the public. Sharps got it wrong with the Eagles, who moved from + 9.5 to + 8.5. Wiseguys also got it wrong with the Falcons (+ 3 to + 2.5). 

Today, a new week begins with a pair of Monday Night Football games in the NFL. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for tonight's MNF matches.

5 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Pittsburgh Steelers

This early Monday Night Football showdown features a pair of non-conference opponents riding win streaks. Washington (4-7 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) has won two straight games, most recently upsetting the Cowboys on Thanksgiving 41-16, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) remain the only undefeated team in the NFL and just beat the Ravens 19-14, although they failed to cover as 10.5-point favorites.

This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 10-point home favorite. The public is all over the streaking Steelers. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this number plummet down to 6.5, signaling heavy respected money grabbing Washington plus the points. Washington holds a distinct rest advantage in this one, having last played on Thanksgiving (November 26) while the Steelers just played on Wednesday (Dec. 2). It will be a short turnaround for Pittsburgh while Washington is rested and ready to go. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 51-31 ATS (62%) this season. Washington also has value as a dog with a low total. We've seen sharp money drop this total from 44.5 to 43.5. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored unders (56%).

8:15 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at San Francisco 49ers

This late Monday Night Football matchup will be a "home" game for San Francisco but will actually be played in Arizona at the Cardinals' stadium. The Bills (8-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) returned from their bye with a 27-17 win over the Chargers last week, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) also returned from their bye last week and snapped a three-game losing skid with an impressive 23-20 win over the Rams, winning outright as 5-point road dogs.

This line opened with the Bills listed as 3-point road favorites. The public says give me the streaking Bills laying a short spread. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line drop from -3 all the way down to a pick'em. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers with pro money buying low on San Francisco. The 49ers are contrarian in a heavily bet game. The under has gotten hit, falling from 48 to 47. Primetime unders are 23-14 (62%) this season. Tony Corrente, the lead referee, is one of the best under umpires in the NFL (58%).

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