Sharps, contrarians and sportsbooks feasted on Sunday, as Week 12 dogs went 8-4 ATS with four outright wins and unders went 8-4. Nearly every chalky favorite failed to cover for the public as unpopular dogs barked loudly for those brave enough to grab the points instead of lay them.
Here are the four dog outright winners
- 49ers (+ 5) beat Rams 23-20
- Falcons (+ 3.5) beat Raiders 43-6
- Titans (+ 3) beat Colts 45-26
- Patriots (+ 1) beat Cardinals 20-17
The 49ers (+ 7 to + 5), Titans (+ 4.5 to + 3) and Patriots (+ 2.5 to + 1) came up huge for wiseguys. All three were unpopular bets but received big reverse line movement in their favor. The Falcons cashed as a buy-low, inflated line value play, moving from a pick'em to + 3.5 while only receiving about one-third of bets.
Here are the four other dog covers
- Jags (+ 7.5) lost to Browns 27-25
- Bengals (+ 6) lost to Giants 19-17
- Bucs (+ 3.5) lost to Chiefs 27-24
- Panthers (+ 3) lost to Vikings 28-27
The Jags (+ 6 to + 7.5) and Bengals (+ 4.5 to + 6) both covered as unpopular home dogs with inflated lines. The Panthers (+ 4.5 to + 3) received sharp reverse line movement, with the line moving in their favor despite the public pounding the Vikings. The Bucs (+ 3 to + 3.5) covered as a marquee contrarian play in a heavily bet game.
With dogs going 8-4 ATS, they improve to 98-77 ATS (56%) on the season. Dogs with line movement in their favor are now 49-28 ATS (64%). Short road dogs + 6 or less are 43-25 ATS (63%).
Here are the four favorite covers
- Saints (-17) beat Broncos 31-3
- Packers (-7.5) beat Bears 41-25
- Dolphins (-7.5) beat Jets 20-3
- Bills (-4.5) beat Chargers 27-17
The books took a big hit as the Saints (-6 to -17) covered easily as a massive public favorite. Average Joes rushed to lay the points with Denver missing all of their quarterbacks. It proved successful as New Orleans won by 28 points. Sharps got it wrong with the Bears (+ 9.5 to + 7.5) and the Chargers (+ 6 to + 4.5). Both saw reverse line movement and came up short as the public rolled with the Packers and Bills.
Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for MNF tonight.
8:15 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles
This Monday Night Football matchup looks like a no brainer. The Seahawks (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) snapped a two game losing skid last Thursday, beating the Cardinals 28-21 and covering as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Eagles (3-6-1 SU, 3-7 ATS) have lost two straight and just fell to the Browns 22-17, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 5.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover by Seattle and they are absolutely hammering the Seahawks. This lopsided support has pushed Seattle from -5.5 to -6.5.
The Eagles are the top contrarian play of the week as they are only getting about one-third of bets in a primetime game. Philadelphia is also receiving inflated line value as a home dog, much like the Falcons, Jags and Bengals on Sunday. Primetime dogs are 22-13 ATS (63%) this season. The Eagles also have buy low value as a "bad" ATS team (3-7) against a sell high "good" ATS team (6-4).
Pro money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 52 to 48.5. Primetime unders are 21-14 (60%) this season. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds at Lincoln Financial Field.