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Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Ravens-Browns

December 13, 2020 11:21 PM

Favorites edged out dogs on Sunday, as NFL Week 14 chalk went 8-6 ATS. The six dog covers included four outright wins, highlighted by the biggest upset of the day: the Eagles (+ 7.5) beating the Saints 24-21.

However, the main story from yesterday was the blazing hot performance of unders. It was a big day for sportsbooks and contrarians (and a tough day for the public who loves betting overs) as unders went 10-4. Late season unders have cashed consistently for nearly a month now. Since Week 10, unders are now 43-26-1 (62%).

Here are the eight favorite covers

  • Titans (-7.5) beat Jags 31-10
  • Cowboys (-3) beat Bengals 30-7
  • Cardinals (-3) beat Giants 26-7
  • Bucs (-6.5) beat Vikings 26-14
  • Colts (-2.5) beat Raiders 44-27
  • Seahawks (-16.5) beat Jets 40-3
  • Chargers (-1) beat Falcons 20-17
  • Bills (-2) beat Steelers 26-15

The public cleaned up with the Titans and Cowboys, who were two of the most lopsided plays of the day receiving two-thirds of bets or more across the market. The public got a bit lucky with the Bucs as Dan Bailey of the Vikings missed three field goals and an extra point (Minnesota lost by 12 as 6.5-point dogs). Pros and Joes both got it right with the Bills, who received sharp "dog to favorite" line movement (+ 2.5 to -2).

Here are the four outright dog wins

  • Bears (+ 1) beat Texans 36-7
  • Broncos (+ 4) beat Panthers 32-27
  • Eagles (+ 7.5) beat Saints 24-21
  • Washington (+ 3) beat 49ers 23-15

All four of the dog winners were huge hits for contrarians as they only received roughly one-third of bets. The Bears (+ 2.5 to + 1) and Washington (+ 3.5 to + 3) received sharp reverse line movement. The Eagles pulled off the biggest "hazmat suit" contrarian win of the day, cashing + 300 on the moneyline in Jalen Hurts' debut.

The other two dogs to cover were the Lions (+ 8.5, lost to Packers 31-24) and Dolphins (+ 7, lost to Chiefs 33-27). Miami received sharp reverse line movement + 7.5 to + 7. The Chiefs are 5-0 straight up in their last five games but 0-5 ATS.

Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football and a loaded college basketball slate. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for tonight's MNF matches.

8:15 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

This Monday Night showdown features a pair of AFC North rivals jockeying for playoff positioning. The Ravens (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) snapped a three-game losing skid last week with a 34-17 win over the Cowboys, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) are rolling and have won four straight, including a 41-35 win over the Titans last week, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. The Ravens are + 85 in point differential while the Browns are -15.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line swell from Ravens -1 to -3. This signals some respected money backing the Ravens before they got to the key number of 3 (last sharp move Baltimore -2.5). The Browns have value as a dog with an inflated line in a primetime game. Divisional dogs are 38-30 ATS (56%) this season. Home divisional dogs are 15-10 ATS (60%). Primetime dogs are 25-15 ATS (63%). The Browns also have an edge as they are on regular rest while the Ravens are on a short week (played last Tuesday). This is also a revenge game for Cleveland, who fell to Baltimore 38-6 on Opening Day.

Also keep an eye on this total. It opened at 45.5, got bet up to 47 and is now back down to 45.5. The under matches several profitable systems. Late season division unders have been a smart bet historically. Since Week 11 divisional unders are 9-6 (60%) this season. Primetime unders are 25-15 (63%). The weather also benefits the under. The forecast calls for low 30s and 15-20 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. Bill Vinovich, the leaf ref, has historically favored unders (59%). Cleveland is 7-5 to the under. Baltimore is 7-5 to the over.

Weather could also been an issue as the forecast predicts low 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. Referee Bill Vinovich has historically favored unders (59%). Primetime unders are 23-15 (61%) on the season.

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