After an epic week-long stretch of chalk and public dominance, contrarians and sportsbooks rebounded nicely in Week 11, with dogs going 7-5 ATS (with five outright wins) and unders going 7-5. It was a rough day for the public as nearly every popular play failed to cover.
Here were the five outright dog wins
- Cowboys (+ 7) beat Vikings 31-28
- Titans (+ 6) beat Ravens 30-24
- Broncos (+ 4) beat Dolphins 20-13
- Panthers (+ 3) beat Lions 20-0
- Texans (+ 2.5) beat Patriots 27-20
Sharps cashed on both the Cowboys (+ 9.5 to + 7) and Titans (+ 7 to + 6). Both teams received less than half of spread bets but saw reverse line movement in their favor. The Broncos (+ 2.5 to + 4), Panthers (-3 to + 3) and Texans (-2.5 to + 2.5) were all incredibly unpopular plays that saw huge line moves toward their opponents. All three won outright in buy-low, inflated line contrarian situations. The Broncos were the biggest surprise of the day. Only about one-third of bets were brave enough to take Denver plus the points.
Here are the two other dog covers
- Raiders (+ 8) lost 35-31 to Chiefs
- Jets (+ 9.5) lost 34-28 to Chargers
The Raiders came up huge for sportsbooks as roughly two-thirds of public bettors laid the points with the Chiefs. With Vegas covering, primetime dogs are now 21-12 ATS (64%) on the season.
Here are the five favorite covers
- Browns (-2.5) beat Eagles 22-17
- Saints (-3.5) beat Falcons 24-9
- Steelers (-10.5) beat Jaguars 27-3
- Washington (-1.5) beat Bengals 20-9
- Colts (-1.5) beat Packers 34-31
Sharps lost on the Eagles (+ 3.5 to + 2.5) and Falcons (+ 7 to + 3.5). Both teams received heavy wiseguy action and big line movement but it was all for naught as the Browns and Saints rolled. Pros did, however, cash on Washington (pick'em to -1.5) and Colts (+ 2.5 to -1.5). Indianapolis was a massive hit for wiseguys. The public was all over the Packers, yet we saw the line heavily in favor of the Colts. This was a classic "fade the trendy dog" scenario that proved victorious for pros.
Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.
In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for MNF tonight.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Monday Night Football showdown as it features two of the NFC's top playoff contenders. The Rams (6-3 SU, 5-4) are coming off an impressive 23-16 win over the Seahawks, covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) rebounded from a 38-3 beatdown by the Saints in Week 9 with a resounding 46-23 win over the Panthers last week, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. The Rams are + 48 in point differential. The Bucs are + 70.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know who to take. On the one hand, they love getting points with a good team like the Rams. But they are also wary of betting against Tom Brady laying a short spread. Despite this even betting, we've seen the Bucs move from -3.5 to -4. Some shops are even hanging -4.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this adjustment toward Tampa Bay was caused by respected pro money backing the Bucs. Jerome Boger is the lead ref tonight, which also favors Tampa. Home teams are 56% ATS when Boger is the head official.
Despite the line move against them, the Rams fit a pair of profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 38-24 ATS (61%) this season and primetime dogs are 21-12 ATS (64%).
We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48. Primetime unders are 21-12 (64%) this season. The Rams are a big under team (7-2) while the Bucs have been profitable to the over (6-4).