Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Patriots-Jets

November 8, 2020 11:10 PM

NFL underdogs continued their hot streak on Sunday, going 8-4 ATS with five outright victories. It was an especially profitable day for contrarian bettors and sportsbooks as nearly every unpopular dog ended up covering. Dogs are now 75-57 ATS (57%) on the season.

Here are the five outright dog victories

  • Bills (+ 3) beat Seahawks 44-34
  • Saints (+ 3) beat Bucs 38-3
  • Giants (+ 3) beat Washington 23-20
  • Dolphins (+ 6) beat Cardinals 34-31
  • Ravens (+ 1) beat Colts 24-10

The Bills cashed as the biggest contrarian play of the day. Only about one-third of bets took Buffalo at home, yet the Bills saw a sharp line freeze in their favor with the line refusing to budge off the key number of 3 despite heavy Seahawks betting. The Saints came up huge for sharps on Sunday Night Football, receiving reverse line movement + 4.5 to + 3 and routing the Bucs by 35-points. Sharps got it wrong with the Colts, though. The public was all over Baltimore, yet the Ravens moved from -3 to + 1 and easily won by 14-points.

Here are the three other dog covers

  • Panthers (+ 10) lost to Chiefs 33-31
  • Jags (+ 6.5) lost to Texans 27-25
  • Cowboys (+ 14) lost to Steelers 24-19

The Panthers were one of the sharpest plays of the day, falling from + 12.5 to + 10 despite the public hammering the Chiefs. The Jags saw late movement in their favor + 7 to + 6.5. The Cowboys were the biggest surprise of the day. Bettors gave the no shot against the Steelers but they led most of the way and covered before losing late. It marked the first cover of the season for Dallas (1-8 ATS).

Divisional dogs are now 28-16 ATS (64%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 35-15 ATS (70%). Road teams with a line move in their favor (aka the Covid system) are 43-25 ATS 63%). Primetime dogs are now 18-9 ATS (67%).

Here are the four favorite covers

  • Falcons (-4.5) beat Broncos 34-27
  • Titans (-6) beat Bears 24-17
  • Vikings (-3) beat Lions 34-20
  • Raiders (-1) beat Chargers 31-26

Public bettors had a profitable day with totals as overs went 7-4-1 ATS.

Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football. For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

In the meantime, let's examine how lines are moving for MNF tonight.

8:15 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at New York Jets

This Monday Night Football showdown features two AFC East rivals desperate for a victory. The Patriots (2-5, 3-4 ATS) have lost four straight games, most recently falling to the Bills 24-21, although New England was able to cover as a 4-point road dog. The Patriots have never lost five straight games in the Belichick era. Meanwhile, the Jets (0-8 SU, 1-7 ATS) are the only winless team left in the NFL. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to the Chiefs, failing to cover as 19.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with New England listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public knows the Pats are struggling but they can't possibly stomach backing the winless Jets. However, despite roughly two-thirds of bets taking the Patriots, we saw respected money back the Jets early, dropping the line from New England -7.5 to -7. But then everything changed when it was announced Sam Darnold would miss this game with an injury and Joe Flacco would start in his place. The line immediately skyrocketed to Patriots -9.5. A couple books went to -10 and took in some buyback on Jets + 10, dropping back to + 9.5.

New York has value as a divisional dog in a low total game (41). Low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. The Jets also have value as a contrarian play in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 18-9 ATS (67%). this season.

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