Monday Night Football Sharp Action Report for Patriots-Chiefs and Falcons-Packers

October 4, 2020 11:43 PM

Sunday was a mixed bag for bettors as favorites went 8-4 straight up but dogs went 6-5-1 ATS, including four outright wins. Road teams went an astounding 9-2-1 ATS yesterday. They are now covering at roughly a 56% clip this season. This speaks to the lack of typical home-field advantage with fewer or no fans in the stands. Overs had another profitable day, going 6-4-2. Despite oddsmakers shading totals toward the over, they continue to sail over.

Here are the four dog outright wins on Sunday

  • Panthers (+ 3) beat Cardinals 31-21
  • Browns (+ 3.5) beat Cowboys 49-38
  • Vikings (+ 3.5) beat Texans 31-23
  • Eagles (+ 7.5) beat 49ers 25-20

The Chargers and Giants lost but also covered as dogs. Los Angeles (+ 7.5) fell to the Bucs 38-31 and New York (+ 13.5) kept it close in a 17-9 loss to the Rams.

Here are the five favorites to cover

  • Saints (-3) beat Lions 35-29
  • Bengals (-1.5) beat Jags 33-25
  • Seahawks (-4.5) beat Dolphins 31-23
  • Colts (-3.5) beat Bears 19-11
  • Bills (-3) beat Raiders 30-23

The lone push was the Ravens (-14) beating Washington 31-17. Baltimore opened around -12.5, which means early bettors who pounced on the number were able to cover. However, the line reached -14.5 before falling back down to -14. Savvy contrarians who scooped up Washington + 14.5 with the hook also covered.

Today, a new week begins with a pair of Monday Night Football games and a pair of MLB playoff games. Let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for the MNF matchups.

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update.

7:05 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs

This game was supposed to be played yesterday but was rescheduled for tonight after Cam Newton tested positive for COVID-19. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) rebounded from a tough Week 2 loss against Seattle with a resounding 36-20 win over the Raiders last week, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Now they travel to Arrowhead to take on an undefeated Chiefs (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) team who just waltzed into Baltimore on Monday Night and waxed the Ravens 34-20 as 3.5-point dogs. This line originally opened with Kansas City listed as a 7-point home favorite. However, once Newton was ruled out and the Patriots announced they would start Brian Hoyer at quarterback, the line re-opened at Chiefs -11.5. Two-thirds of bets are laying the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen some books drop the line to -10.5. This signals some wiseguy money buying low on Belichick and the Pats as a rare big road dog.

8:50 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers

The Falcons (0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS) are winless and have choked away big leads two straight weeks, most recently losing to the Bears 30-26 as 2.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers are undefeated and just took down the Saints 37-30 as 3-point dogs on Sunday Night Football. This line opened with Green Bay listed as anywhere from a 5-point or 6-point home favorite. Early money immediately laid the points with the Packers. The public is also on Green Bay, which has pushed the line up to -7 or even -7.5 at some shops. But then we saw smart money buy-low on the Falcons at + 7.5 and + 7, which has dropped the line down to 6.5. The Falcons are tough to back due to their continued collapses, but Atlanta has value as a contrarian road dog in a heavily bet game with a sharp late line move. This total opened at a super high 58.5 and has been bet down to 56.5. Both teams are 3-0 to the over so far this season.

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